The government itself has been embroiled in political controversy at a time when it needs to focus on Corona transition management. The government, which has banned gatherings in public places during the Corona transition, has decided to convene a parliamentary session on 27th Baishakh, which is for nothing else but to get a vote of confidence for Prime Minister KP Oli.

After the Prime Minister’s decision to dissolve the House of Representatives on 5th Poush, the CPN (Maoist) faction opposed Oli’s decision. The group was supported by the Nepal-Khanal faction of the UML group within the NCP (NCP). Many thought Oli would resign after the court’s decision to reinstate the House of Representatives on 11th Poush. But, according to the court’s order, the government convened a meeting of the House of Representatives.

Speaker Agni Prasad Sapkota, who had not cooperated with the government by not presenting the pending bills in the House of Representatives including MCC, and then the meetings adjourned. The government had decided to end the winter session of the parliament on 6th Baishakh without consulting to the speaker. The prime minister could have taken a vote of confidence from the session as Corona’s second wave began, but he did not think to take a vote of confidence at the time.

The Nepali Congress, the Maoists and the Janata Samajwadi Party were preparing to register a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister. The distance between the government and the speaker was widening. At the same time, the government decided to end the session. The Prime Minister had convened an all-party meeting on 4th Baishakh as the UCPN (Maoist) and the Nepali Congress (NC) came close to an alternative government.

UCPN (M) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal did not attend the meeting. Prime Minister Oli did not want Chairman Dahal to attend the meeting. His wish was to break the alternative alliance formed between Dahal and the Janata Samajwadi Party’s Upendra Yadav. Therefore, Prime Minister Oli focused on only two issues in the meeting. The first issue was that the Speaker did not cooperate. In other words, when the Congress accused the government of not giving business to the parliament, it was not the government but the speaker who did not cooperate.

The second issue was the most important issue. Expressing anger towards the Speaker, Prime Minister Oli said, “What is to be done about MCC?” Due to the Speaker’s blockading, the MCC could not table for discussion in the Parliament. This issue has been left unaddressed. Prime Minister Oli tied the wings of Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba throwing the trap of MCC. Those who have opposed the MCC have forced President Deuba to think about how to share power with them. The Prime Minister understood that the equation that was being formed was broken for once.

Prime Minister Oli, who was at ease after dropping his MCC card on Saturday, received another report on Sunday. It was reported that the Nepali Congress and the Maoists were filing a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister. Signatures were being collected for this. Oli was shocked by this news again. It was better to end the session of Parliament than to discuss MCC in Parliament. Therefore, Prime Minister Oli called a meeting of the Council of Ministers on Monday to end the session of Parliament. There was no question that the President would not support Oli.

Oli’s Domination:
After the court restored the Constituent Assembly, Oli’s weight in Nepali politics is gradually getting heavier. All the doors in front of Oli, who was removed by the majority central members of the NCP (NCP) even from the ordinary members, were gradually being closed. Due to which, many thought that Oli would resign after the court decision. Although the Maoists recalled their ministers, they did not withdraw their support to the government.

The NCP (NCP) was unlikely to come to his side for Oli, who had boycotted. The NCP (NCP) would have sided with Oli only if he acted unconstitutionally by pressuring the Election Commission. It was not possible to split the party as he did not even have 40 percent in the Central Committee. Therefore, the court’s decision had taken Oli in a really difficult situation. But Oli’s courage did not diminish. He did not stop speaking loudly.

Whatever the case may be, the government convened a meeting of the House of Representatives on 23rd Falgun with the idea of ​​facing the parliament. On that day, Madhav Nepal and Dahal sat in the parliament for a while. Oli, on the other hand, returned after sitting outside for 15 minutes saying that the parliament sitting had not started on time. Oli, who appeared to be in parliament, was suddenly returned to the mainstream of politics by a court ruling. Nepal and Dahal were in deep love when the court decided to separate the UML and the Maoists as the process of forming the NCP (NCP) was not right.

After the court’s decision, UML came to Oli’s side. In the UML, the Nepal side was in the minority. It was not easy for the Nepal side, who made close relation to Dahal leaving Oli and return to the UML. However, while they were returning to the UML, on 28th Falgun, Oli decided to manage the leaders, including Ram Bahadur Thapa, who did not want to return to the Maoists party. Now the Nepal side is addicted on the condition of not abiding by that decision. Even today, some leaders of the Nepal side seem to be saying that they will not participate in any meeting of the UML until he backs away from the decision.

The relationship between Oli and Nepal has not been good for a long time. Oli, who defeated leader Nepal by a narrow margin in the ninth general convention, defeated leader Jhala Nath Khanal in the parliamentary election. From the time of the Eighth General Convention, Khanal was more inclined towards the Maoists. Nepal, on the other hand, had good relations with the Maoists until the peace process, but since then, relations have been deteriorating.

Leader Nepal had proposed a referendum on the republic proposed by the Maoists. He argued that the Constituent Assembly elections and the referendum should be held at the same time. If a republic wins, a republican constitution will be made, and if a constitutional monarchy wins, then constitution will be made accordingly.’ The Maoists had besieged Singha Durbar for 17 days to remove Nepal, who became the prime minister after Dahal, from the post of prime minister. After that, the distance between Nepal and Dahal increased.

Until the death of Girija Prasad Koirala, Maoist Chairman Dahal did not need leaders of other parties. Dahal was more dependent on Koirala. Despite being betrayed by Dahal, Koirala never did anything to embarrass the Maoists. At the time of the drafting of the constitution, the relationship between Oli and Dahal was getting closer. Dahal had nominated Oli as the next prime minister after the constitution. Due to which, Oli’s role in the constitution-drafting process has become very positive. Oli, who became Prime Minister for the first time because of the support of Dahal, was removed with a no-confidence motion after failing to comply with the agreement. It was led by Dahal. He was supported by Deuba.

After Oli’s ouster, the Maoists and the Nepali Congress shared power. Oli remained in opposition. Nepal only witnessed the downfall. He was not sought in the latest decision of politics. Nepal was the only witness in the decision to form the NCP (NCP). After party unification, Dahal visited Delhi and China. During his visit to Delhi, he revealed that there was an agreement between Oli and him to run alternate presidents. Before that, Madhav Kumar Nepal was unaware of the secret agreement reached during the party unification.

A few months after the unification of the party, Dahal began to understand Nepal’s dissatisfaction. While Oli was pushing himself, Dahal accompanied Bamdev Gautam. Gautam also linked Nepal and Khanal to the front against Oli. Gautam had filed a petition before Oli demanding an inquiry into the election defeat. According to Gautam, he lost the election due to Surya Thapa and his team. Thapa, who was close to Oli, was not to be prosecuted on the basis of what Gautam said. Oli threw Gautam’s request in the trash. Due to which, Gautam’s relationship with Dahal was getting better. Dahal, Nepal, Gautam and Khanal were on one side. Oli stayed on the other side and started running the government and the party.

“We regret the American intervention in Venezuela,” Dahal said in a statement on the party’s letter pad on the issue of Venezuela. When Dahal issued the statement, another NCP (NCP) president and prime minister, Oli, was attending a meeting of the World Economic Forum in Dover. People in the diplomatic field were of the opinion that Dahal’s statement was irrelevant. Because of this statement, Oli was afraid to let Dahal run the party alone. Oli felt that Dahal was not yet mature.

On the other hand, in the midst of party disputes, Oli continued to run the government and the party in his own way. Despite the controversy within the party over some of the people in the secretariat, he worked to protect them rather than remove them. As a result, a junior leader like Surya Thapa did not stop criticizing a senior leader like Dahal on social media. After the failed attempt to surround Oli from all sides, the standing committee meeting held on 26th Bhadra gave Oli the right to act on the advice of the party.

President is everything:
Oli seems to love the post of President Vidyadevi Bhandari more than the post of Prime Minister. Bhandari’s success was made possible by Oli’s stand. Not only did Bhandari support the Oli faction as the president of the women’s association, but Oli has also been able to use the structures built across the country under the banner of the Madan Bhandari Foundation.

After parliament last year released a new map covering the Lipulek region, Oli said India was seeking to remove him from the PM’s post through the same forum. Oli’s public remarks at a time of controversy within the party made him even more isolated. The 19-page report submitted by Dahal at the NCP (NCP) Standing Committee meeting offended Oli the most. He accused it of being a bundle of accusations.

On the 3rd of Poush, Oli came to know two things at once. The first was the registration of a no-confidence motion against him from the former Maoist leadership. For this, Dahal has been put forward as the new Prime Minister. There is a provision in the constitution to mention the name of the future Prime Minister while submitting a no-confidence motion against the government. The next information was to impeach the president after the change of government, and to move forward the work to be done by the President through the Vice President after the impeachment.

Oli’s activism had suddenly increased after getting these two notifications. Oli was more concerned about the president than himself. If Oli had been removed from the PM’s job, he could have returned to the post. With the impeachment passed, President Bhandari’s political career would have ended forever. The role of Oli and President Bhandari has come under scrutiny after an ordinance on party split and the Constitutional Council was brought into lockdown last Baishakh due to the corona infection.

Even before this, President Bhandari had been interested in political appointments. She has gone beyond rhetoric due to her interventionist role not only in the appointment process but also within the party. In such a situation, the motion of impeachment brought by a group of the NCP (NCP) shocked Oli even more. Due to which, he hastily convened a meeting of the Council of Ministers and decided to dissolve the House of Representatives. Prior to Oli’s recommendation, the President’s Office had made preparations in this regard. Upon receipt of the recommendation, the President’s Office issued a statement dissolving the Constituent Assembly.

Even now, Oli loves the post of President Bhandari more than his own. Oli had also reached the President’s Office on 23rd Baishakh while discussions were underway with Nepal. Oli was still at the President’s Office that afternoon. The President, who is pressuring Nepal to join the UML in any way, cannot put pressure on Oli. If Oli backs away from 28th Falgun’s decision, the UML can move forward in a unified manner. For this, Nepal has put forward a proposal to hold a Central Committee meeting with the leaders from the Maoists. Oli, on the other hand, seems to be thinking of avoiding the proposal than accepting.

Leader Madhav Kumar Nepal’s Problem:
After the court’s verdict, the Nepal side returned to the UML after holding a farewell meeting at the UCPN (M) office in Parisdanda. Without informing the Nepal side, Oli convened a meeting of the Central Committee on 28th Falgun. At that time, the Nepal side was confused. Talking to Oli was like closing. There was no possibility to connect with Dahal.

Nepal was in the most difficult situation after the 23rd verdict. Although he was the head of the international relations department of the NCP (NCP), many people stopped believing in him because he followed Father Moon. In the decade and a half since he became the General Secretary of the CPN-UML, some of the foundations of his relationship have changed. The BJP had replaced the Congress I in India. Nepal’s relationship was with the Congress I. He does not seem to have any connection with the BJP.

With the parallel party activities not moving forward as expected, Nepal became closer to Dahal and Deuba than Oli. He had constant discussions with Dahal, thinking of making Oli a failure anyway. Due to which, Oli’s close cadre Dr. Khimlal Devkota was nominated as the member of National Assembly which was held election on 6th Baishakh accepted by the Congress and UCPN (Maoist). In the party elections, the Congress and the UCPN (M) stood for independent candidates. UML, on the other hand, nominated Ram Bahadur Thapa, who was dismissed after the change of party.

On 23rd Baishakh, Nepal went straight to the President’s Office from Deuba’s residence. He had a discussion with Oli in the presence of President Bhandari as a witness. While the discussion was going on about moving the party forward in a new direction, Nepal’s trusted character Dr. Bhim Rawal went to meet Deuba on 24th Baishakh. It means that now Nepal’s feet are on two boats at once. If the boat falters a little, his political life will sink forever. Along with him, more than a dozen potential leaders in Nepali politics will also drown.

Nepali Congress and Maoists are ready to vote for Nepal’s candidate in the National Assembly. Nepal has stopped them from nominating another candidate. In Lumbini, the Nepal side has agreed to support the Congress candidate.

The Nepal side has promised to help the person who joined the Nepali Congress by resigning to embarrass Lumbini Chief Minister Shankar Pokharel, Oli’s closest confidante. This shows that it is difficult for the Nepal side to back away from the agreement reached with the Congress and the Maoists after reaching an agreement with Oli. By doing so, the loyalty of Madhav Nepal will be questioned more than the Nepal side leaders. Dahal and Deuba will call him a traitor forever.

Oli can demand the withdrawal of the candidature of the candidate put forward by Nepal for Thapa’s secured win. In such a situation, the biggest losses are to the Congress and the Maoists. Their voters do not even get a candidate to vote for. On the other hand, Nepal Mazdoor Kisan Party has nominated its candidate in the National Assembly election of Bagmati Pradesh despite having few members. When Nepal retreats, the status of the Congress and the Maoists in the current election will be weaker than that of the NMKP.

The upcoming trip to Nepal is not easy without Oli. It is clear that the UML will be led by Oli. In such a situation, Nepal and Jhala Nath Khanal have tried to move the party called UML Krantikari forward. The election symbol of this party will be the rising sun. According to Dahal, Nepal will come to unite with the Maoists by revolting against the UML or forming a new party. The unity of Nepal and Dahal is not possible in such an easy situation now.

This is the last chance for Dahal and Deuba to use the Nepal side. Nepal side has no intention of voting against the vote of confidence for Oli. Before that, some leaders are thinking of resigning from the parliament. If this is fulfilled, the Nepali Congress will file a no-confidence motion against the government. Deuba will replace Oli as Prime Minister.

When the Nepal side plays this game of making Deuba the Prime Minister, the door of UML will be closed for them forever. UML will be completely on Oli’s side. In addition, they do not seem to be able to take political advantage from Deuba due to the loss of seat in parliament. From this point of view, this decision of the Nepal side will be taken only when all the doors to go with Oli are closed. If there is a possibility of reconciliation, they cannot make this decision. So now the Nepal side has only two options:

1. Reconciliation with Oli:
To move forward by reaching an agreement with Oli through negotiations. By doing so, Oli’s wish to stop the formation of the alternative government may be fulfilled to some extent. However, the option reaches to the court of JSP. Going along with Oli can bring a kind of enthusiasm among the UML cadres. But, that enthusiasm is only for a short time. Even if Oli’s wish to go to the polls in the coming Kartik is fulfilled by closing the way for the formation of an alternative government, the party will remain divided within Oli and Nepal from the distribution of tickets to the voting. As a result, the UML will reach the position of the Congress in the mid-term elections of 2051 BS.

2. To support the Congress by resigning:
By resigning, Nepal side lawmakers could pave the way for Congress president Deuba to become Prime Minister. Following this path, the Nepal side should immediately form a new party. According to the Nepal side, if the UML cadres do not support him, the unity of the new party with the Maoists will not be easy. From the center to the districts, the Maoist cadres seem to be overshadowing the Nepal side cadres. Due to which, the politics of the Nepal side seems to be over forever. 08 May 2021

@Danfetv