according to James M. Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Speaking to CNA’s Asia Now, he says the United States is the key mover if negotiations are to move forward, but there has been very little indication on the part of President Donald Trump to do so.
The Gaza peace plan is frozen and any breakthrough in talks is unlikely unless both parties, especially Israel, face significant external pressure, according to James M. Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Speaking to CNA’s Asia Now, he says the United States is the key mover if negotiations are to move forward, but there has been very little indication on the part of President Donald Trump to do so.
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Anchor
And for more on the Israel-Gaza war and the US-initiated Gaza peace plan, I’m joined by James M. Dorsey, and he is a joint senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University. Thank you very much Mr. Dorsey for joining us. So let’s look at this Gaza peace plan. It’s a year into that peace plan, three years after the October 7th. Where are we now?
Is the peace plan dead, alive or is it just frozen?““[James M. Dorsey] The peace plan is the only game in town. But having said that, it’s frozen. Nothing is happening.
I think de facto you have a situation where both Israel and Hamas are not unhappy with the current status quo. From Hamas’s perspective, they still control somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of Gaza, the remaining 60 to 70 percent being controlled by Israel. While they have said that they have withdrawn from government, no longer running the civil administration in Gaza, de facto they are, through various networks, through their role in distribution of humanitarian goods, and they remain armed.
On the other hand, Israel controls the majority of Gaza, is free to strike whenever it wishes to do so, keeps the Palestinian polity. With other words, on the one hand the West Bank-based internationally recognised Palestine Authority and Hamas, on the other hand, divided. So that’s a status quo that I think serves both parties.
As a result, you’re seeing very little movement. The only way you are going to get movement is if there is significant pressure on both parties, particularly in this case Israel, and there’s no sign of that.
[Anchor] 
Well, you talk about if there’s going to be pressure. Mr Netanyahu says that there’ll be no Palestinian state while he’s in charge. You mentioned there Israel now controls close to 70 percent of Gaza.
So, is that control a bargaining chip or his actual plan?
[James M. Dorsey] 
It’s his actual plan, and even more so the plan of his coalition partners. But even, you know, many look at the forthcoming October 27 Israeli election as a possible panacea. Fact of the matter is that while the opposition parties, were they to come to office after the election, are on the fundamentals of Netanyahu’s policy.““With other words, no Palestinian state, no disarmament of Gaza, no expressions of Palestinian national identity. Those are all principles that the opposition party agrees on, as does a majority of the Israeli public. So we may see changes in tone, may see a shaving off of the raw edges of the Netanyahu government, but we’re not going to see fundamental change.““[Anchor] Right. So, mentioning and saying that, can you really then have lasting peace without answering this question of Palestinian statehood?
[James M. Dorsey] 
Without resolving the Palestinian issue, you will have or continue to have a festering wound in the Middle East. On top of that, of course, the circumstances in Gaza are abominable. So, if this continues over time, many are not going to feel that they have nothing to lose.
[Anchor] 
Let’s look at this balance of power. Now it’s shifted in the Middle East. So where do the U.S. and Arab powers now fit in?
[James M. Dorsey] 
The U.S. is the major joker in the deck, if you wish. With other words, the United States is going to have to pressure Israel to start making moves in Gaza, including allowing the Palestinian administration that was established or composed by the Board of Peace to enter Gaza. They still have not been allowed to enter, to have a plan for an Israeli withdrawal, to deal with Hamas in terms of disarmament.
What disarmament means? Does that mean just heavy weapons? Does that mean small side arms?
And what the phasing of that will be? That’s a role that the United States has to play and has not played until now. There may have been some pressure on Israel, but certainly not the kind of pressure that would persuade Israel.
The fundamental problem here is that you have a Palestinian polity in Gaza that in a recent poll, in majority, was in favour of a two-state solution. But increasingly, a two-state solution is becoming very difficult, if not impossible. And the alternative, a one-state solution, is a recipe for civil war.““[Anchor] So I want to pick up on America. How much of this peace plan really depends on Donald Trump personally?
[James M. Dorsey] 
I think to a great extent. It’s going to be Trump that has to twist Israeli arms, whether that’s Netanyahu in a post-election government or an opposition government led by one of the opposition leaders. We’ve seen very little indication of Trump being willing to do so.
[Anchor] So let’s look regionally now. Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, they’ve all played an important mediating role. What happens if one of these countries decides that this current framework no longer serves their interests?
[James M. Dorsey] 
Practically not that much. First of all, there’s not that much that Qatar can do. Qatar is constitutionally a mediator in the sense that mediation is part of the Qatari constitution.
And that’s one of the reasons why they have allowed Hamas to operate within Qatar at the request of the United States and with the acquiescence of Israel. Egypt is in a sense in a bind. It is the only country that borders on Gaza.
And the one thing it does not want to see for both domestic and regional political reasons is a mass exodus out of Gaza into Egypt were it to fully open the Rafah crossing.
[Anchor] 
All right. Thank you so much for your analysis. I’ve been speaking with James M. Dorsey, adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University.