A mass attack by Israeli settlers on a Palestinian village in the occupied West Bank spotlights how the Israeli Palestinian conflict has become ever more intractable. James discusses on TRT World whether Israeli elections later this month will make a difference and whether an equitable resolution of the conflict is still possible.

Transcript

[Host Neil Harvey] Well, let’s bring in James M. Dorsey in Singapore, James is adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Welcome once again, James.

Israel announced its plans to develop land in Area A. Now we’ve got a senior UN official saying it’s starting to happen. For those states and individuals who want a two-state solution.

Is this the point of no return?

[James M. Dorsey] The question is whether we have not already passed the point of no return. Imagine what it would take to establish a two-state solution today. In other words, an independent Palestinian state alongside the Jewish state.

You would have to either give 750,000 Israeli settlers in the Palestinian state residence permits, if not citizenship, or you would have to move them out. That’s going to be a gargantuan task, almost impossible to fulfil. So, the question is if the Israelis, for all practical purposes, have not already closed off the option of a two-state solution.

[Host Neil Harvey] We heard just this month Ed Miliband, Foreign Secretary for the UK, saying the UK fully supports a two state solution. They and other countries in Europe are partnering with them, impose sanctions on illegal settlements in Israel. I mean, it’s fantastic rhetoric.

It looks like they’re taking action. But I mean, is it all pointless if Israel is just going ahead anyway and starting to build its connecting roads? Doesn’t the intervention have to be bigger?

And doesn’t it have to be right now or yesterday?

[James M. Dorsey] It obviously would need to be far broader and virtually isolate Israel, cut Israel off. That’s not going to happen anytime soon. But I think there’s a more fundamental question.

The Israeli Palestinian conflict has always been portrayed as being intractable. For the longest period of time, it was not intractable. The question is whether it now is intractable, because if you then look at a one state solution, that’s essentially going to be a recipe for civil war.

[Host Neil Harvey] I’m trying to understand, how has Israel managed to do this, despite condemnation from a growing number of countries, condemnation from the UN? It seems like Israel and Netanyahu have just said, we’re going ahead with our plans. And it doesn’t seem like there’s any real opposition that’s stopping them.

[James M. Dorsey] What we’re seeing under this Netanyahu government is a significant escalation of what was already happening. Israeli settlements started some 15 years ago, after the conquest of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in East Jerusalem during the 1967 Middle East war. Israel has been ever since building settlements on the West Bank and initially also in Gaza until it withdrew in 2005.

Those settlements were condemned by Western states, by virtually the international community and were deemed illegal under international law. Nevertheless, no one took action against Israel or tried to force Israel to back down from these policies. And what we now have is the result.

[Host Neil Harvey] I mean, if this continues as it does, is this not going to leave Palestinians elsewhere, for example, in Gaza thinking, well, we cannot trust anything that Israel says or does, they’re coming for our land, they’re coming for our homes. And where do you see this going? Because it’s not like Palestinians are just going to roll over and accept this going forward.

[James M. Dorsey] First of all, this is what Palestinians have long been thinking. They don’t trust the Israelis. Basically, their view is that the 1993 Oslo Accords, which were supposed to lead to the creation of an independent Palestinian state, were deliberately undermined by Israel.

And for all practical purposes, Benjamin Netanyahu has said that that is the case. Where it goes from here is a totally intractable situation in which the fate of the Palestinians is not going to improve for a significant period of time. I think what everybody is waiting for, possibly in vain, is what happens after the October 27 Israeli elections.

And the possibility that you get a government that does not include Benjamin Netanyahu, nor does it include extremists like the national security minister, sorry, Yitzhak Ben-Gurion or Bezalel Smotrych. The problem with that proposition is that the Israeli opposition may have less raw edges on it when it comes to office. But fundamentally, it doesn’t disagree with these policies.

[Host Neil Harvey] Well, I mean, you talk about the elections. I mean, I’ve interviewed Naftali Bennett, who was previously in power and has a good chance of resuming office. And I don’t see him as much of a softer option.

I mean, isn’t there a danger there’s just going to be a continuation of policies if someone like him gets in?

[James M. Dorsey] I think you will fundamentally get a continuation of policy, but you’re not going to get the sort of provocation, both in statements and in actions that you’re seeing from this Netanyahu government. There may be a greater sensitivity to Israel’s standing in the international community, which has been severely damaged and an intention to try and improve that. And so, you may see cosmetic changes, but fundamentally, policies are not going to change.

[Host Neil Harvey]

James, always appreciate your analysis. Thank you, James M. Dorsey, adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

@thanks james