22 August 2025
New ICIMOD report finds shrinking groundwater and unusually low rainfall led to Madhesh drought Delayed rainfall along with depleting groundwater levels and gaps in water supply infrastructure could lead to an acute water crisis for the province in the coming years. Immediate impact will be on the province’s ability in rice production, which could further lead to inflation in food prices, and longer-term food insecurity for poorer households.
Analysis of the eight districts in the Madhesh province during July of this year, shows conditions ranging from mild to extremely dry. Credit: Sravan Shrestha/ICIMOD
Kathmandu, 22 August 2025 - A new situational report from the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has found that a combination of erratic and deficient rainfall, along with depleted groundwater levels, could have led to the drought conditions that had been affecting Madhesh province in the south-eastern Terai region.
Earlier in July of this year, due to the severity of drought conditions, the government declared the province ‘drought –stricken’.
This water deficit also impacted the production of rice – a key crop cultivated in the province.
ICIMOD and Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD) mapped 21 districts in the Terai belt, focusing specifically on rice –cultivation, and found that the districts of Dhanusah, Mahottari, and Siraha would also be impacted.
Chet Bahadur Roka, Senior Statistics Officer and Chief of Agriculture section at MoALD commented, “The shortfall of rice doesn’t only imply a challenge to food security in the present drought context, but also long-term challenges to nutrition, well-being and affordability of food grains for vulnerable households in the coming years.”
“In order to avoid this scenario, measures would include encouraging farmers to explore diversifying their crops, and for there to be provisions for early-warning advisories so that farmers are better prepared.”
MoALD had also reported reduced paddy transplantation rates in July, which stood at 51.82% as compared to 92% last year.
A shortfall of nearly 450,000 metric tons of rice is expected, leading to approximately a 10% dip in national rice supply.
The province has also been facing a water shortage due to depleting groundwater levels – the root of which has been traced back to the Chure hills.
Saswata Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction lead at ICIMOD comments, “A degraded Chure region means cascading risks downstream, as being seen in the province. Given that it’s an ecologically sensitive region, adopting and reviving Nature-based Solutions including measures like springs, wells and ponds would help in reducing these impacts which are rather difficult to perceive.”
Existing gaps in infrastructure, including in irrigation networks, canals and household water sources such as hand pumps, mean that the impact of the drought had become an acute crisis.
Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Cryosphere and Water Lead at ICIMOD reflects, “Such adverse conditions always impact the most vulnerable and marginalised areas in a disproportionate way. We are seeing a pronounced impact of climate change on women, children and socially disadvantaged groups.”
“We are presently working with municipalities in the Lower Koshi to inform local-level planning where factors like gender and social inclusion are factored into disaster responsive planning.”
With the government announcing the province as “drought affected”, approximately NPR 17 crore (USD 1.2 million) had been allocated for small irrigation systems such as shallow tubewells, which bring groundwater to the surface using suction lift pumps.
The study is based on ICIMOD’s assessment of Earth observation tools including vegetation condition data collected from satellite imagery (from Sentinel-2 and MODIS). The study’s findings were integrated into a national portal that provides monitoring and early-warning advisories for drought conditions in the country.
Experts contributing to the study have also urged that while smaller-term measures like shifting to less water-intensive crops are advised, there is a critical need for longer-term planning.
Such initiatives include taking a watershed approach, a framework which considers the interconnectedness of land, water, and other resources to achieve sustainable resource management. In this case, upstream changes in the Chure hills include ensuring mining in the region is sustainable.
Investing in watershed management planning is also crucial for long-term water security as well as reducing the scope of cascading hazards in the region.
Acknowledgement - This study is supported by the project ‘Green, Climate Resilient and Inclusive Development in the Koshi River Basin’ (HI-GRID)?. HI-GRID is supported by the Australian Government and implemented by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), local government organisations and project partners to enhance resilience towards TMTL in the LKRB in Nepal.
Spokespersons available for comments
ICIMOD (Kathmandu)
Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Cryosphere and Water Lead
Saswata Sanyal, Intervention Manager-DRR
Sravan Shrestha, Senior Associate - Remote Sensing & Geoinformation
About International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region stretches 3,500km across Asia, spanning eight countries – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan. Encompassing high-altitude mountain ranges, mid-hills, and plains, the zone is vital for the food, water, and energy security of up to two billion people and is a habitat for countless irreplaceable species. It is also acutely fragile, and vulnerable to the impacts of the triple planetary crisis of climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), based in Kathmandu, Nepal, is an international organisation established in 1983, that is working to make this critical region greener, more inclusive and climate resilient. For more information, read our Strategy 2030 and explore our website.
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ICIMOD (Kathmandu)
Raz Tuladhar, Media Officer
Anshu Pandey, Senior Media Associate
Email: media@icimod.org
