The conflict between India and Pakistan is not just a competition between two neighboring countries, it is a game of complex geopolitical intrigue. Where superpowers like China and the United States are fighting a “shadow war” to advance their interests. Far from traditional issues like the Kashmir dispute and terrorism, the rise of China and America’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy have added new dynamics to this historic hostility. This analysis highlights, based on facts and history, how Sino-American competition is redefining South Asian stability.
Historically, India-Pakistan relations have been influenced by the geopolitical framework of the Cold War. After partition in 1947, the US saw Pakistan as an anti-Soviet fortress and supported it through military alliances such as CENTO and SEATO. India led the Non-Aligned Movement and maintained close ties with the Soviet Union. Despite regional tensions rising after nuclear tests by both countries in 1998, the US resumed military assistance to Pakistan after 9/11, declaring it a “non-NATO ally”. Meanwhile, China has historically viewed Pakistan as a “proxy” against India and a “buffer state” for the security of western China (Xinjiang). Transfer of military technology like the JF-17 Thunder, economic cooperation, and political cover for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue in the UN Security Council have made this relationship as strong as steel.
China and the US avoid direct involvement in the Indo-Pak conflict, but their influence is indirect and profound. The Sino-Pakistan’s “Iron Brotherhood” represents a strategic favor against India. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is at its center. Which provides Pakistan with a basic structure and investment while giving China access to the Indian Ocean through the Gwadar Port. CPEC’s passage through Gilgit-Baltistan (a region that India considers an integral part) raises questions of territorial integrity for India. This has raised security concerns in India. China’s continued military upgrades to Pakistan (JF-17 fighter jets, Type 054 frigates, drone technology) have complicated the India-Pakistan military imbalance.
In contrast, the US has been actively fostering India as a counterbalance to China. This partnership appears through Major Defense Partner (MDP) status, defense technology transfers (GE F414 engines, MQ-9B drones), participation in groups such as the Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia), and India’s central role in the Indo-Pacific strategy. This has distanced Pakistan from the American sphere of influence. The acquisition of advanced weapons systems (Apache, Chinook helicopters, naval technology) from the US and its allies (Israel, France) has qualitatively increased India’s military power, further deepening Pakistan’s security dilemma.
On the political front, China has been acting as a “steel shield” for Pakistan by repeatedly raising the Kashmir issue in the UN Security Council. Especially after India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir (August 2019). China is also supporting relief for Pakistan in bodies like the FATF. The US has mostly considered Kashmir a bilateral issue, but has taken India’s concerns over Pakistan-based terrorism (e.g., 26/11 Mumbai attacks, Pulwama attack) seriously, and has played a significant role in imposing sanctions against groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed. India has been fostered as a “net security provider” through the Quad.
In the economic sector, CPEC has provided a huge investment to Pakistan’s economy, but it has also raised serious security concerns for India. The potential for China’s military presence in the Indian Ocean through Gwadar Port threatens to challenge India’s maritime security. The US has sought to establish India as an alternative to China (“China Plus One”) in the global supply chain, with major trade and investment in India’s vast market. This economic interdependence has helped the US gain political influence in India.
In recent years, Sino-US competition has added new variables to the Indo-Pak conflict. America’s Indo-Pacific strategy, with India at its center. In the Indian Ocean, it aims to directly challenge China’s influence through CPEC. It links the India-Pakistan rivalry to the global power struggle. There are growing parallels between tensions in the Taiwan Strait and along the India-China Line of Actual Control (LAC). China can create pressure by questioning India’s position on Taiwan. While India opposes international intervention in Kashmir, it opposes China’s position on the Taiwan issue. Sino-US competition in semiconductors, 5G/6G, and artificial intelligence will affect India and Pakistan. The US seeks to partner with India in semiconductor manufacturing, while China can invest in digital infrastructure in Pakistan through the Digital CPEC. Which could create new tensions in the areas of cybersecurity and surveillance. As in hybrid warfare, both superpowers support their proxies through information warfare and online propaganda. The impact of climate change on the Himalayan glaciers could strain the Indus Water Treaty. China’s dam construction (on the upper Indus) and the US/West’s encouragement of renewable energy in India will impact this resource competition.
These developments pose serious risks to the stability of South Asia. Sino-American competition could exacerbate Indo-Pak tensions as both sides feel security assurances from their superpower allies. The military competition is intensifying. While the likelihood of a major conflict is now low, the risks remain unquantifiable. Pakistan is faced with the dilemma of redefining its relationship with the United States as its economic and military dependence on China deepens. India continues its historic defense partnership with Russia (S-400, BrahMos missile) while maintaining its “strategic autonomy” and deepening ties with the US.This puts India at risk of US sanctions.
Smaller nations are also seeking to exploit this complexity for strategic opportunities. Bangladesh has raised India’s security concerns over the Siliguri Corridor by signing a new military agreement with China. Nepal has capitalized on its geography with the Trans-Himalayan Railway deal with China in 2022. The Maldives has reduced the Indian military presence, under its “India Out” policy, giving China a tactical empty place. The intervention of the superpowers has made this conflict more complex than it can control. The US Secretary of State mediated a ceasefire in the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025. But while China initially made statements of neutrality, it later made its interests clear by declaring CPEC a “strategic priority.” This shows that no superpower can remain neutral in a genuine peace process. The future scenarios are worrying. If Sino-US tensions escalate over Taiwan or the South China Sea, the “shadow war” on the India-Pakistan border could intensify. China’s militarization of the Indian Ocean through CPEC could force India to respond aggressively. Pakistan is likely to accuse India of “water terrorism” as climate change reduces the flow of the Indus River. Amidst all these risks, the only hope seems to be if India and Pakistan dare to overcome internal political pressures and engage in direct dialogue. But the “shadow” of China and the United States cannot be absent from such dialogue either. Until peace in South Asia is finally freed from the geopolitical games of the superpowers, the India-Pakistan conflict will always remain an echo of global power competition.
with dragonmedia.com.np
