#Prem Sagar Poudel - - - -
In recent years, there has been growing interest among various international power centers regarding Bangladesh's internal politics, economic stability, and relations with India. In this context, a debate has erupted after some comments made by US President Donald Trump to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding Bangladesh were made public.
Donald Trump, during his previous term, had adopted a policy of strengthening India's influence in South Asia. And, it seems that he wants to continue that policy now. According to some international media outlets, Trump discussed the durability of Bangladesh, China's influence, and the Rohingya crisis in his informal talks with Modi. Some analysts have interpreted this as Trump trying to give India the responsibility of overseeing the durability of South Asia, including Bangladesh.
India was previously seen as a key strategic partner under the Trump administration's 'Indo-Pacific Strategy'. This strategy was taken as an attempt to contain China's influence. During this time's Trump-Modi meeting, both sides tried to continue the old policy in their own interests. In which it was said that the durability of countries like Bangladesh would also be important.
Bangladesh is currently facing a variety of internal and external challenges. Bangladesh is currently under an interim government led by Mohammad Yunus. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left the country for India in August 2024 last year. In her absence, the interim government has leveled various serious allegations against Sheikh Hasina.
The government has accused Sheikh Hasina of causing a massacre in the country. The Interim Government's Commission of Inquiry has made public a report of the enforced disappearance of people during Sheikh Hasina's tenure. There have been allegations of violence and persecution of religious minorities under her leadership. Based on these allegations, the interim government has revoked Sheikh Hasina's passport and sought her extradition from India to return her to Bangladesh. Currently, Sheikh Hasina is in exile in India and has denied the charges against her.
Bangladesh's main industry, garment exports, is facing a global recession and rising production costs, putting economy under the pressure. Foreign exchange reserves are dwindling, causing problems for imports and trade.
More than one million Rohingya refugees displaced from Myanmar are living in Bangladesh, creating social and economic pressure. The international community's support to manage this appears to be inadequate.
China and Bangladesh formally established diplomatic relations in 1975. The two countries have been cooperating strongly, both economically and diplomatically. Bangladesh is a major trading partner of China. And, China is one of Bangladesh's major exporting countries. China has been investing a large amount of capital in Bangladesh, especially in the infrastructure sector. Such as road, railway, and energy projects.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a plan that has a special impact on Bangladesh. China has invested heavily in Bangladesh's development projects, which have brought about significant improvements in Bangladesh's structure. China has also tried to promote China's development model in Bangladesh and to build deep diplomatic influence. Under the BRI, China has also helped improve Bangladesh's road and railway networks. As a result, China's cooperation has played a significant role in Bangladesh's economic development, and China's influence there is growing. While Bangladesh is benefiting from trade and capital investment with China.
Bangladesh is one of the countries directly affected by climate change. Floods, rising sea levels are threatening to displace millions of people.
If instability increases in Bangladesh, it could have various repercussions in India and across South Asia. If internal instability increases there, border security and trade could be
affected. When Bangladesh became independent in 1971, millions of refugees came to India. Even now, large numbers of refugees have started to enter Nepal from Bangladesh via India. This could affect the security, resources, and internal politics of South Asia, including India and Nepal.
China is investing in the Chittagong port in Bangladesh, which is increasing China's influence in the Indian Ocean. India is terrified by this fear, and America, which understands India's psychology well, is trying to play on this through soft power. If Bangladesh becomes unstable, it has the potential to cause economic and political instability throughout South Asia.
It is true that the Trump administration has considered India a key strategic partner in South Asia. However, there is no concrete evidence that Trump has formally granted Modi any ‘regional guardianship’. However, India was seen as a 'Net Security Provider', which meant that India had to play a significant role in maintaining stability in the region. For example, the Trump administration declared India a 'Major Defense Partner' in 2016 as a defense partnership. Additionally, under the US-India strategic partnership, India was urged to play a key role in South Asian durability, including Bangladesh.
Bangladesh's political and economic durability is essential for the stability of South Asia. India, the United States, China, and other international powers are seeking to expand their influence in the region. While the true purpose of the Trump-Modi dialogue is unclear, it has signaled that India needs to shoulder more responsibility for South Asian durability.
The path Bangladesh takes in the future will impact not only India, but all of South Asia. The decision will be crucial as to whether India will maintain diplomatic balance and cooperate in stabilizing Bangladesh or adopt an aggressive strategy in collaboration with the US to stop China's growing influence.
