The Rise of the Gen-Z: Enough is Enough

On May 7, 2023, the headline of this piece remains just as relevant today. I warned of an impending collapse, drawing from the principle of criticality and trigger points that lead to cascading effects, especially in a highly interconnected network. Nepal's system, devoid of checks and balances and heavily manipulated by a select few—politicians, media, and business elites—was a ripe candidate for collapse.

With immense sadness over the loss of 21 young lives, I’m sharing my 2023 piece again. The Gen Z movement transcends merely opposing media bans; it embodies deeper issues such as corruption, impunity, retributive politics, negligence, and utter arrogance. Instead of superficial fixes, the government must recognize that the tipping point has arrived, and the political parties must implement reforms to pave the way for the new generation, including within their own party structures.

As I write this, uncertainty looms, but the Prime Minister and leading political figures know what is required to move forward. The die has been cast, and they must pave a new path for the future.

We must also understand that these tipping point triggers—whether a slap by a cop in Tunisia or a social media ban in Nepal—carry cascading effects far beyond their immediate context. This understanding is especially important for the international media, which should not view these events merely as incidents of social media deprivation.

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Nepal's Political System: On the Brink of Collapse? May 7, 2023

The dysfunctionality of Nepal's political system has become increasingly apparent in recent years, as evidenced by its frequent changes in government, the circus of coalition changes, and party in-and-outs over the last three months alone. These actions highlight the country's leadership's focus on power and perks rather than addressing the dire economic conditions. Despite the constant political upheavals, high-profile corruption scandals, and growing frustration among the masses, Nepal's political landscape seems to be undergoing dynamic shifts, with smaller independent candidates and parties winning recent elections, and younger leadership within the traditional party showing increasing restlessness.

Some argue that the growing frustration of the people is fueling this rise in independent movements and warn that the larger parties have no choice but to change their old ways. Given the continuous exodus of youths to other nations, joblessness at home, mercurial politics, and falling agricultural productivity, some have begun to speculate that Nepal is inching towards a collapse similar to Sri Lanka's.

To gain insights into whether Nepal, a gorgeously beautiful country in the world with unlimited potential, is inching towards collapse, I will explore the concept of criticality theory.

Criticality theory is a field of physics that examines systems that are on the verge of instability. It has been applied to various fields, such as power grids, transportation networks, ecology, and financial markets, to identify vulnerabilities and weak points in these systems and prevent potential failures or crises. For instance, the theory has been used to identify critical factors that contribute to market crashes in financial markets and critical species and processes that are vital for ecosystem stability in ecology.

Similarly, criticality theory has been applied to political systems to study their stability and fragility. For instance, a study using criticality theory in Tunisia found that the government was operating at a critical point between stability and instability. A small trigger, such as self-immolation, sparked a widespread uprising, leading to the downfall of the government.

It's worth noting that, as seen in the case of Sri Lanka, grassroots uprisings that stem from criticality theory do not require centralized leadership to ignite, often known as the self-organized emergence phenomenon. The protests that occurred in Sri Lanka were a prime example of a spontaneous, decentralized movement that reflected the pent-up frustrations of ordinary citizens. These protests were mostly peaceful, but also included some instances of violence, such as the storming of the presidential palace in November 2022.

The political system in Nepal is highly fragile and unstable, with frequent changes in government and power-sharing arrangements among political parties. This system lacks checks and balances since major parties share power, appointments, and key administrative positions, including the judiciary and anti-crime commissions. Contrary to norm in any mature democracy, what's even more concerning is that smaller parties are increasingly aiming to sideline larger parties and, in some cases, even succeeding in leading the government. Although the practice of giving deputy prime ministerial positions to smaller parties for power-sharing used to be common, the current situation highlights the need for constitutional changes that grant the largest party the power and responsibility to form the government. The current political system's incestuous relationships across the board are sources of corruption, kickbacks, and cronyism, and, above all, are believed to foster a culture of impunity.

Moreover, Nepal’s parliament lacks constructive opposition, and parties often mask oppositional rhetoric only to use it as a bargaining tool for power positions in the government or to counter each other’s misdeeds. Rhetorical shouting by members in the thinly attended parliament does not elicit any response from the concerned authorities or investigative triggers.

The political history of Nepal has seen significant transitions in the quest for political freedom and liberty. Following the overthrow of Rana rule, Nepal experienced a temporary democratic system, which King Mahendra later replaced with a one-party Panchayat system. After a few years and following a popular uprising, this system was replaced by a multiparty system, which was followed by another movement, largely triggered by Maoist demands for republicanism.

The movement was successful, leading to the creation of a new constitution that incorporated social, economic, and political rights for marginalized communities, ensuring liberty and freedom. Despite these constitutional guarantees, political parties have failed to deliver on their promises. Moreover, the political abyss created by rampant corruption and constant changes in government has now created fear of yet another collapse, which the country cannot afford and which could even undo the progress achieved after years of struggle.

Although Nepal has made significant progress in achieving political freedom through various transitions, there is concern that the current political system may be on the brink of instability. In the criticality theory jargon, the system is reaching a phase, also known as transition phase, where small changes or disturbances can have significant effects on its behavior. To prevent a complete collapse, it is necessary to address the problems in our political system, including political reforms, internal democracy within political parties, efficient parliamentary rules, and anti-corruption strategies. However, for any of these changes to be effective, they must start at the top, as the saying goes, "it rots from the head down."

I will draw upon an analogy from the example of forest fires and how Native Americans used to manage them. The rising incidence of forest fires happens because of years of piled-up leaves and underbrush on the forest floor, which can be ignited by a small spark, leading to the collapse of the entire ecosystem. In order to prevent this collapse, Native Americans used to conduct controlled burns and clear the underbrush so that trees could grow healthier, preventing a larger collapse.

In Nepal, corruption cases and files often remain stagnant on the desks of politically appointed officials and judges. Meanwhile, the government struggles to address a myriad of problems, including the ongoing brain drain of educated professionals, such as doctors and engineers, college-bound students, and the exodus of millions of skilled blue-collar workers. Recent events, such as the self-immolation of entrepreneur Prem Acharya, the suicides of women borrowers, and high-profile bribery scandals, only add to the already mounting pile of woes and pain experienced by the people.

Prem Acharya's lengthy suicide note detailing the ground reality and his personal experiences with corrupt practices, bureaucratic hurdles, banking regulations, import-export laws, and many other issues, along with some practical solutions, even caught the attention of a Kathmandu-based think tank, which saw the possibility of transforming it into a legislative agenda.

Despite the gravity of the situation, when Prem Acharya's body was burning on the street in front of the parliament, the Prime Minister's motorcade reportedly swerved around it without stopping. While a few parliament members expressed their momentary outrage over his self-immolation, they quickly moved on to other matters. Although there were rumors and discussions surrounding the creation of a Prem Acharya Bill aimed at addressing some of the regulatory laws, these efforts appear to have faded away.

Adding to the sense of dysfunctionality, a recent incident involving a parliamentarian stripping down to his trousers has caused controversy. Although such behavior is not appropriate for parliamentary decorum, the message behind the stunt can be characterized in two ways: as an expression of impatience among people or leaders not willing to wait for a business-as-usual response of the past, or as a sign of a total breakdown in the political discourse mechanism that we have come to expect from our leaders. Such incidents are a symptom of a critically unstable system, where small perturbations can bring down the entire system. This characteristic is comparable to the current Nepali governance system, where all major components, such as the governing body, legislative branch, constitutional bodies, anti-corruption commissions, and judicial body, as well as, in some cases, business houses and media, do not work independently as a checks-and-balance mechanism, due to power-sharing agreements among parties. Misdeeds by any party are protected through back-scratching give-and-take among each other, making the whole system precariously hanging in an unstable balance. It is ready to collapse if any event triggers a cascading effect, which could come from within, such as when the actors involved in corruption rackets, such as the fake Bhutani Refugee scandal, begin to abandon the ship, causing an avalanche of revelations, or it could emerge as an independent uprising from the streets, as seen in Sri Lanka.

All of these issues and events, small and big, are comparable to piles of fuel that are waiting to ignite, as has been seen in other countries such as Tunisia and Sri Lanka.

In conclusion, Nepal's political system is highly fragile and unstable, operating at a critical point between stability and instability. Urgent reforms are necessary to address the country's political dysfunctionality and prevent a crisis that could have disastrous consequences. Such reforms include improving transparency, accountability, and governance, promoting internal democracy within political parties, and ensuring power is not concentrated in the hands of a few. All political actors must cooperate and commit to these changes, while civil society and ordinary citizens should actively push for reforms. Senior political veteran parliamentarian, Chitra Bahadur KC's warning in parliament may prove prophetic, cautioning that the very political forces that fought for Nepal's liberty and freedom may ultimately be responsible for its loss if they do not heed the impending warning signs that are all around us.

Alok K. Bohara, PhD
Professor of Economics
University of New Mexico
bohara@unm.edu

@bohara