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१७ मंगलबार, असार २०८२16th June 2025, 6:20:04 am

India's Stumble & Nepal's Subservience !

०२ सोमबार , असार २०८२१५ दिन अगाडि

India's Stumble & Nepal's Subservience !

The basis of India's approach to Pakistan was set by the Gandhi-Jinnah talks in June 1944. Mahatma Gandhi was released from prison on May 5, 1944, as pressure mounted on the British to leave India. After Gandhi was released from prison, he had a lengthy conversation with Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the leader of the All-India Muslim League. In this conversation, Gandhi agreed with Jinnah's arguments.
Pakistan was born as an independent Muslim state after Gandhi agreed with Jinnah's argument about why Muslims could not stay together with the Hindu majority in India. The second installment of Rs 75 crore out of the Rs 95 crore that independent Pakistan was supposed to receive from India was stopped due to the Kashmir dispute. The then Home Minister Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel said that India would not make any payments to Pakistan until the Kashmir issue was resolved. Gandhi even went on a hunger strike against this decision of the Indian government, demanding that Pakistan be paid immediately. However, saying that it still needs to take 300 crores from Pakistan, India has been showing details for 79 years. One of the reasons for Gandhi's assassination was his voice against the Indian government's decision to withhold 75 crore, which was to be given to Pakistan.
The above incident makes it clear that even today, the Indian government, recent the Modi government, wants to eliminate Muslims internally. It seems that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, have the idea of defining India as a country of Hindus. Therefore, the government does not hesitate to blame the Muslim minority for all types of terrorist attacks in India. This time too, India launched Operation Sindoor after 26 tourists were killed in an attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir. This attack was different from the previous ones. Muslim communities were at the forefront of the rescue efforts after the attack in Kashmir. They had openly opposed the attack. Unable to find a place to blame Muslims within India, the Modi government announced Operation Sindoor, targeting Pakistan, in response to this attack.
In the Kashmir region, militants in an insurgency that has been ongoing since 1989 are seeking independence from India or union with Pakistan. In its manifesto for the Jammu and Kashmir elections held in October last year, the JKNC party announced that it would start talks with Pakistan. That manifesto, released on August 19, also included a program to fully implement Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. In addition, a US diplomatic delegation led by US diplomat Graham Meyer met Sajjad Gani Lone at his residence in Srinagar. Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference leader Lone urged US diplomats to lift the US ban on American tourists in Jammu and Kashmir.
Since diplomatic relations are a matter for the central government, the fact that the Americans met with political party leaders in Jammu and Kashmir also indicates Prime Minister Modi's failure to resolve problems within his own country. Since August, Modi had been thinking of showing the power of the central government in Kashmir. The Pahalgam attack provided the environment for showing that power. Based on the Pahalgam attack, India launched a military campaign called Operation Sindoor against Pakistan. Nepal, however, sided with India in this attack. As the chair of SAARC, Nepalese officials completely forgot that Pakistan is also a member of SAARC.
One of the ideas behind Operation Sindoor was to strengthen the central government's presence in Kashmir. The central government has been weakening in Kashmir in recent times. By making this operation a success, India wanted to increase the trust of the Muslim communities in the Kashmir region in the central government. Externally, another desire was to present evidence of India's growing power. Prime Minister Modi launched Operation Sindoor with the idea of becoming internally strong and demonstrating power externally.
Operation Sindoor, launched by India on May 7, turned into a ceasefire on the evening of May 11. In a press conference held at 6 pm on May 11, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that both sides had agreed to cease all firing and military operations on land, air, and sea from 5 pm on Saturday and to hold talks on a neutral ground. The US mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio disclosed about it from social media. The ceasefire was first announced by US President Trump. He wrote in Truth Social, “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate cease-fire. Congratulations to both countries on using common sense and great intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
India, which had announced Operation Sindoor with the intention of defeating Pakistan, could not even last four days on the battlefield. The reason behind this was India's weak defense capability. In this war, Pakistan, with the help of Chinese-made fighter jets, shot down Indian fighter jets made in France. India has not yet confirmed this subject. However, India had high expectations from the French-made Rafale. Pakistan has been seen ahead of India not only in air strikes but also in drone strikes. The issue of the use of the nearly three dozen Rafales that India has is also currently in confusion. Operation Sindoor has indicated that India needs to make major improvements in its defense sector. In addition, this war also seems to have resulted in the use of additional force in India's declining regional dominance.
India does not want to publicly acknowledge this incident. Speaking at a press conference to announce the ceasefire, New Delhi's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said that Indian security forces were responding appropriately. Prime Minister Modi, in his address to the name of nation on May 12, announced that further action would be taken based on Pakistan's attitude. It seems that Prime Minister Modi has not been able to move beyond the self-conceit that India has not retreated. At the same time, the management of the US, which has become active again in this region due to India, seems will be the biggest challenge for India.
Relations between Nepal and India have been unstable since 2072 BS. After the promulgation of a constitution against India's wishes, India has been trying its best to micromanage of Nepal. Incidents ranging from blockades to power cuts seem to be used as tools of India's management. India is trying to expand its influence in Nepal through the use of seemingly negative tools. However, Nepal's rulers are trying to appease India. India launched Operation Sindoor at 1:05 am on May 7 with airstrikes in various locations in Pakistan. Nepalese Prime Minister KP Oli called Indian Prime Minister Modi as soon as it became morning, saying that Nepal would always stand with India in its fight against terrorism. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on May 8, clarifying Nepal's support for India. Not only the government, but also political party leaders openly supported India in this attack. As an exception, only Dev Prasad Gurung, the general secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center), publicly expressed his views in favor of Pakistan.
India has already informed Nepal about its stance. Bharatiya Janata Party leaders Dr. Vijay Jolly and Vijay Chauthaiwale, who visited Nepal after the ceasefire with Pakistan, have clarified India's stance with the Prime Minister and political party leaders in Nepal. Therefore, Nepal has interpreted Operation Sindoor more as an attack against terrorism than an attack against Pakistan.
On the other hand, during this attack, India needed soldiers to fight on the front lines. After Prime Minister Modi implemented Agnipath in 2022, the recruitment of Nepali youth in the Indian Army has been stopped. In the last Lok Sabha elections in India, the Congress I had included a program to remove Agnipath in its manifesto. According to this plan, recruitment into the army is currently being done for four years of service. Based on the work, after four years, 25 percent are allowed to join the army for retirement, while the remaining 75 percent are given a lump sum of 2 million rupees to leave. The story of military defeat in this war is also linked to Agnipath. High-ranking officers in the Indian Army have already realized the lack of Nepali youth who are not afraid to be on the front lines during war.
It seems that there is also a debate on the issue of Agnipath to increase India's defense capabilities. India is also holding informal talks with Nepal on the issue of Agnipath. The Indian side has also discussed this issue with Prime Minister KP Oli. If the Agnipath is reopened in its old form, or if the Agnipath is suspended and Nepali youth are recruited into the Indian Army, Nepal will welcome the program will be announced by India. Prime Minister Oli is speculating whether the agreement to recruit Nepali youth into the Indian Army will also lead to his visit to India. In such a situation, during his visit to India, Oli will sign a memorandum of understanding regarding the recruitment of Nepali youth into the Indian Army.
On the other hand, it is still unclear how much American influence will spread to India that came through Operation Sindoor. If American influence in India increases or India becomes active in the Indo-Pacific region forwarded by the US, even the micro management work that the US has been doing in Nepal will return to India's hands as before. In such a situation, America will again look at Nepal through Delhi's eyes. This means that Nepal will return completely to its old status under the umbrella of India. India's failed management of the region, including Nepal, could also lead to India moving forward on the path of establishing regional dominance through US intervention. Nepal also seems to readily accept this path. 
At a time when India's regional power is being interpreted as weakened because the Americans are not willing to completely abandon India in this region, India's sought American intervention through mediation should not be taken lightly. In this situation, India will expand its military power with American technology. India has decided to buy American fighter jets F-35. Apart from this, India has made agreements to buy weapons, oil, and gas from the US.
Overall, India has completely failed in the management of Nepal. Nepal's rulers have not stopped following India. With the change of government, Nepali politics has not been able to free itself from the mindset of considering a visit to India as a basis for success. Therefore, the basis for saying that Nepal will not move forward according to India's thinking, even if India wants it to, has not yet been established.