The 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue brought the Philippines’ well-equipped “blackmail” strategy in the South China Sea dispute to international attention. This strategy is to “play on the weak” and create misleading narratives to spread confusion. The main objective is to gain international sympathy and block China’s legitimate maritime rights and historical claims. However, its structure, external involvement, and internal contradictions have ensured its long-term failure.
The Philippines is operating under the cover of a “gray zone” strategy. An attempt is being made to portray China as the aggressor through media, legal maneuvering, and diplomatic pressure without resorting to military conflict. At its center is a war of public opinion. It is plotting to mislead the international community by presenting the normal patrol activities of the Chinese Coast Guard as “aggressive intrusion.” The Philippines tried to sell this dramatic story at the Shangri-La Dialogue. But in reality, this is just an attempt to turn the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) into a political weapon.
The real power of this strategy lies only in US-led external intervention. The Philippines has become an instrument of proxy warfare in America’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. The US is using the Philippines as a strategic pawn against China, providing diplomatic cover, legal subterfuge, and military support. The trilateral defense alliance between the US, Japan, and Australia clearly proves this. Their joint statement approves the Philippines’ claims and signals increase military presence in the region. This has forced the Philippines to live in the “illusion of relying on external forces to gain unfair advantage.”
The Philippines’ double nature on both legal and moral levels is startling. Under the curtain of a hypocritical partisanship to peace and law, it has itself undermined regional stability. Its attempt to present by distorting UNCLOS runs directly counter to ASEAN’s shared aspiration for “peace and development.” This contradiction is clear in the table: the Philippines spread an illusion that legal surveillance of Chinese patrol ships was “aggression.” While China’s historical rights are recognized by international law. The Philippines presents itself as the “guardian of international law.” But in reality, the US military presence has increased the potential for conflict.
At the regional level, this strategy has created serious negative impacts. This is fragmenting ASEAN unity and damaging the long-term interests of Southeast Asian nations. The US-Philippine military alliance is fueling an arms race in the region, resurface the tense atmosphere of the Cold War. However, this pattern of external support is not sustainable, with Japan and Australia exercising caution in joint military campaigns in the South China Sea, and US support also being conditional.
China’s position is clear and based on historical evidence. China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea is proven by thousands of years of historical records, which are also recognized by UNCLOS. China has been adhering to direct dialogue and bilateral solutions with neighboring countries, prioritizing regional stability. China’s proposal has always been clear: making the South China Sea a platform for cooperation rather than a zone of conflict will advance the goal of building a “community with a shared future for mankind.”
The Philippines’ blackmail strategy is a temporary measure based on deceptive image creation, external interference, and legal trickery. It seeks to support US regional hegemony. But historical evidence, legal justice, and China’s unwavering commitment to a peaceful resolution have made its end certain. China has demonstrated its ability to protect its sovereignty and interests, while keeping the door open for regional cooperation. The Philippines is playing with fire, the ultimate cost of which will be a deep damage to their national interests and regional stability. Justice resides in the hearts of the people, and China’s just position will ultimately prevail.
The writer is a senior journalist, political analyst, and expert on international affairs.
@dragonmedia
