Leela Mani Paudyal - - - -
Intense shockwaves were felt throughout the world after Donald Trump assumed office as the 47th President of United States of America (USA) on January 20, 2025 and issued several executive orders subsequently. Many of his executive orders undermine the international governance system-so called rule based international order, built after the World War II, centered on USA. The day President Trump assumed office on January 20, 2025, issued executive orders include the orders initiating the process of US withdrawal from Worlds Health organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement for second time. He had issued a similar order on Paris Accord in 2017 and order on WHO in 2020 during his first term of presidency and the successive president Joe Biden reversed both the orders that paved the way for continued association with Paris Accord and funding to WHO. Further, on January 5, 2025, the president issued executive orders to withdraw from the United Nations Human Right Council, UN Relief and Work Agency for Palestine Refugee (UNRWA), order to review the involvement of USA with the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and call for a comprehensive review the funding and Involvement of USA in various UN agencies.
The WTO was dwindling since 2017 after US-China trade war, and had been seen irrelevant during the COVID-19 pandemic. The arbitrary act of USA by imposing additional tariff in international trade to many country, even its close allies Mexico and Canada, at it wishes, virtually treated the WTO as a non-existent entity.
The multilateral institutions including United Nations Organization, Bretton Wood Institutions and their paraphernalia were basically designed to serve the interest and ‘protect the hegemonic world’ (Glenn Diesen, 2025). United States of America and her allies’ exercised overwhelming control over the institutions designed for global governance after the World War II and resorted unchallenged hegemonic power in global governance after the fall of Soviet Union in 1990. But, the Bretton Wood institutions were inadequate to address the development aspirations of global south. Conseqwuently, new institutions such as Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and New Development Bank (NDB) emerged with the initiation of emerging economies from the ‘global south.’
The USA and its allies have taken a lead to devise institutions and rules for global governance, and generally interpreted those rules to serve their interest with the intention of controlling global economy, politics and technology throughout the last eight decades period. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, the USA, as a pivot of global power, generally termed as unipolar global order in international relations, has been resorting its military, economic and technological might against any sovereign country in the world which do not heed on their dictate. But the Trump’s ordered to withdraw from those institutions, meant to serve their own interest. Seemingly the withdrawal look like impulsive and, or over reaction of President Trump’s inadvertent scale of election victory. But, hard reality is different for shifting power from a ‘pivot’ to diverse locations during the past three decades or so. The role played by global powers in the regional conflicts, the challenges in global governance and the responses of global powers to those conflicts and challenges during the period underline the compelling realities of the decline of the unipolar global order and the emergence of a new multipolar global order.
The president Trump’s ordered to shutdown the United State Agency for International Development (USAID) was never imagined by its adversaries even. The USA was unable to hold the most powerful instrument for expanding its influence globally and operate covert and overt operation including through coup d’etat for changing regimes who resist their hegemony. The global network of the agency, with close collaboration of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), was the major instrument to advance globalist unipolar hegemony. Elon Musk, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency under the Trump government, has posted in the social platform X, that “USAID is a criminal organization” that should “die.” The major organ of imposing globalist hegemonic agenda is in deathbed now.
President Trump also ordered to stop funding Ukraine war that he believes ‘unstainable’ and will ‘never be won.’ This was war provoked and backed by the unipolar hegemonic ‘Deep State[1]’, at the helm of US leadership. The strict economic sanctions imposed on Russia was failed when Russia continued to boost the trade with major non-western economies and growth of Russian economy was higher than any major European economy during the economic sanctions. The propaganda against Russia to isolate them globally is also failed when Russia hosted the 16th BRICS+ (acronym of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in Kazan in October 22-24, 2024 which was attended by overwhelmingly large number of heads of states and governments that includes the 10 heads of states or governments from member nations and 19 heads of states or governments from partner countries including secretary general of united nations organization. President Trump, in such a context, quickly initiated for the negotiated settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war and the first high level-talks between Russia the USA held in Saudi Arabia on 18th February, 2025 that is within a month of assuming office by the Trump administration. This is the clear sign that USA is no more in a position to dictate the terms in regional conflicts as a unipolar power center used to. The warring party, Ukraine and the European Union-the major partners of Ukraine, were not invited in the meeting. Cracks are observed in the western alliance on the Ukraine war issue and rifts and antagonism are surfaced out after the imposition or threat to impose additional tariffs by the USA to the products from Mexico, Canada, and trans-Atlantic partners.
The US funded and supported Israel agreed to a Gaza ceasefire with Palestine Hamas group from January 19, 2025, just a day before President Trump would assume office. Earlier, Israeli with strong backing of the USA and its allies, was ‘hell-bent’ on completely smashing Hamas-arms outfit, fighting for Palestine state and was denying any ceasefire before the complete destruction of Hamas. The US could not stop the warrant notices for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense Minister Yoav Gallant by the International Criminal Court, despite their all-out efforts to stop it, including a warning statement issued against ICC justice before the order was about to issue.
The USA and its allies committed number of atrocities, covert and overt, with audacious use of power in the different parts of the world during the so called unipolar global order. Such as, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization bombed Serbia 78 straight days (Jefrry Satch, 2024) in 1999 completely undermining the UN Charters, devised in 1945 under the US leadership. The NATO invasion in Kosovo and Bosnia caused deaths of more than hundred thousand people and displacement of more than millions. The USA together with NATO abuse the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency to devastate the most ancient Mesopotamian civilizations, Iraq, in 2003, in the false guise of the possession of Nuclear Arms. The reckless bombing over Iraqi people caused to deaths over hundred thousand innocent civilians, the sufferings of millions of orphans, women and elderly people. The USA continues to occupy Iraq, ignoring the Iraqi government’s request to withdraw its forces from Iraqi territory and has been capturing the Iraqi oilfields. The USA together with NATO bombarded Tripoli of Libya in 2011 that ruined the most vibrant city of Africa to rubbles and smashed the Libyan economy only because the then president Gaddafi was not abiding by the dictation of ‘the only super power USA’ and its allies European Union. The International coalition led by the USA invaded Afghanistan in 2001, to overthrow the Taliban regime- a group once they trained and armed, and to smash a terrorist organization, Al-Qaeda. However, the coalition forces were abruptly withdrawn in 2021 after the costs of as high as 360,000 lives (The Cost of war project 2016). Ironically, the same Taliban reassumed power in Afghanistan after 20 years of war with US led coalition. Donald Trump even stated that the then US president Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw was ‘not a withdrawal but a complete surrender.’
The US military presence in Syria for decades and funding warlords, to whom US itself considers terrorist organizations, for ousting the Bashar al-Assad regime, resultantly, is taken over by extremist forces unfriendly to the US themselves. The sole beneficiary of Syrian invasion of US probably, would be the extremist radical forces and partly the Turkey, but apparently no USA. Media reported that Turk’s a high level security delegation visited Teheran, Damasks and Riyadh during the second week of February. In case Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia join hand together for resolving west Asian crisis, the USA dominance in west Asia for last 80 years, in the geopolitically important region in the world endowed with abundance of petroleum reserve, will ceased to exist. Today neither of the Damasks, Tripoli, Bagdad, Teheran and Kabul regimes are friendly with US and its allies.
The ‘SWIFT code’ which is used to transfer funds in international trading currency, was controlled by US and its allies- the G-10 countries[2]. The code was weaponized to dictate the other countries to whom they shall trade. The USA and its allies imposed sanctions against Russia and threatened the rest of the world to stop trading with Russia, otherwise would be stopped to use the ‘SWIFT’ so that the countries traded with Russia will be unable to transfer funds. The emerging economies including India, China and South Africa challenged the US sanction against Russia and prompted to discuss about the alternative of ‘SWIFT’ for smooth global trade. China and India adopted currency swap and agreed for trading in local currencies with many other countries including with Russia. The discussion of alternatives for US dollar and SWIFT code, both, during the 16th BRICS+ summit in Kazan implies that the emerging economies were feeling suffocation of USA imperial hegemonic behavior and trying to find alternatives of ‘SWIFT code’.
These are the few examples how political elites in Washington acted recklessly at the behest of the superrich multinational conglomerates with the advice of the ‘deep state’ that pushed the world towards more vulnerability. Equity, just and inclusion which, are the fundamental prerequisite for sustainable peace and harmony in the world, remained elusive. Vast majority of the world is marginalized and remains only an onlookers of the major decisions taken by the unipolar power center on the advice of ‘deep state’ and at the interest of global conglomerates.
The world is undergoing an unprecedented transformation never before seen in human history. Though the rise of new powers like China, Russia, and India can be attributed for the emergence of new global order but the fall of unipolar global order is a result of its own reckless acts as advised by ‘deep state’ with few multinational conglomerates for their shared benefits. The unipolarity is mismatching with a vast diversity of culture, civilization, economy and political history of different parts of the world. The emergence of a multipolar world order is, ipso facto, no longer a speculative intellectual discourse only or a wishful thinking of global political pundits but increasingly has become a reality of contemporary world. As the Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, among other things, stated during the conference held on 14-16, February 2025 that “….we already live in a world shaped by multipolarization…. and Munich Security Conference was focused on multipolar global order. The notion of multipolarization describes both a global shift of power to a large number of actors around the world as well as increasing polarization on the international and domestic levels.” In a similar tone the newly appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confesses that the unipolar global order “..is a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet” (U.S. Department of State, January 30, 2025).
In such a backdrop the BRICS+ platform of emerging economies, is expanding members’ base and widening its scope. The BRICS+ is the largest intergovernmental organization at present with accounts for almost 46% of the world’s population, and 36% of the world’s nominal GDP by 2024. The BRICS+ is emerging as a platform that advocates multipolarity. Similarly an Eurasian regional organized called Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), established in 1996 with five founding members, namely China, Russia, Kazakhatan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan ( 10 member states plus two observers and 12 dialogue partners in 2024) all from Eurasian regions, is also vouching multipolarity and engaging in collective promotion of economic, cultural, socio-political and security agenda of the member states. European Union, African Union, Gulf Cooperation Council and ASEAN nations are other active regional organizations providing opportunity for deeper economic integration, with the promotion of trade, investment, and tourism within the member states.
The New Development Bank (NDB) by BRICS countries and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with 57 founding members (109 by December 2024), both were established in 2015. Both the institutions have been playing a significant roles in development financing parallel to the Bretton Wood institutions reflecting the influence of emerging economies in development financing.
Though the rise of new powers like China, Russia, and India can be attributed for the emergence of new global order but the fall of unipolar global order is a result of its own reckless acts as advised by ‘deep state’ with few multinational conglomerates for their shared benefits. Furthermore, the unipolarity is mismatching with a vast diversity of culture, civilization, economy and political history of different parts of the world.
There is no clear picture in the horizon that how the global affairs will be safely navigated in a multipolar global order from unipolar one. But declining American influence on managing global issues and the growing influence of emerging economies in shaping global agenda is a fact and the transition is irreversible.
Power transitions are influenced by a complex web of interconnected factors, including economics, trade, technology, regional conflicts, climate change, and global pandemics like COVID-19. Historically, power transitions from incumbent superpowers to emerging ones, including the most recent shift after World War II, were the results of millions of lives and devastation of economy, infrastructure and civilizations. The pivot of power was determined by the war and the military supremacy. However, the current global power dynamics are evolving in a markedly different way, characterized by economic competition, technological innovation, and strategic diplomacy rather than direct armed confrontation among major powers. There is also an undeniable fact that the world is still volatile and uncertainties are looming large. No one can predict in definite term that what would happen next. If a nuclear war is inflicted that could potentially challenge the very existence of any of the nine nuclear-armed states. The reaction through nuclear arms in a perception of existential threat to the warring nuclear state could pose a catastrophic threat to humanity and while a full-scale nuclear war could potentially lead to human extinction. The nine nuclear power countries collectively possess over 12,000 warheads (SIPRI Yearbook, 2023), that could completely destroy several time the all creatures on the earth. In this context, global intellectuals and policymakers must play a critical role in facilitating a nonviolent transition of power to avoid the so-called "Thucydides Trap."
While criticizing the unipolar global order for its inability to comprehend the issues and challenges faced by the vast majority of global south, the emerging global power were expected to adhere the UN principles and charters while dealing sovereign countries, respect and recognize the sovereign equality of all the nations and, advocate and ensure fairer, equitable and just global order. The emerging powers shall take the global south in their confidence by ensuring global peace and security as the collective common goods. All the countries, big or small, powerful or weak, and developed or developing should commit to uphold the UN charter of non-interference, sovereign equality, and peaceful resolution of conflicts through dialogue. The global south should be assured of not resorting coercive force, whether be military or economic, by any powerful country against any sovereign nations in any pretext. The emerging powers should act responsibly to avoid power vacuum in a situation of the decaying the existing global order and lack of new order in place. The new global order should take decisive action to reverse the ever widening gaps between the rich and poor within the country and among the countries. Mahatma Gandhi, the great soul of India once said “the mother earth have enough resources to fulfill all the needs of human being on the earth but not sufficient enough resource for fulfilling the greed of a man.” The greed of crony financial capitalists across the globe requires to be checked for equitable, peaceful and secured global order. The new global order must recognize the diversity of civilizations, races, history, culture, politics and values of different society and the country. Coexistence and harmony among them only makes the world beautiful. The emerging powers should come forward with agenda and proposals to address the challenges faced by the contemporary world, such as climate justice, data and cyber security, widening gaps between the rich and poor within and among nations, terrorism and extremism, digital divide, security threat due nuclear and biological arms. The new global order have to shoulder the responsibility of lifting massive populace from poverty trap and reaching out to the vast population deprived of basic amenities required for a dignified life. There should be a compulsory provision to compensate the loss and damage caused to the global south by the act of accumulating pollutions loaded on the earth and atmosphere. There should be a robust mechanism for ensuring data and cyber security of technologically weak and vulnerable countries in the new global order. Control over, monopolistic behavior of global conglomerates and equitable access to technology is imperative for a just global order. The emerging powers should ready to compete with each other’s in a fair, transparent and friendly manner. The environment shall be created so that the global south would willingly align with the emerging powers to shape new global order that is just, equitable and inclusive.
(Mr. Leelamani Paudel, former Chief Secretary of the Government of Nepal and former Ambassador of Nepal to China)
[1] A body of people, typically influential members of government agencies or the military, believed to be involved in the secret manipulation or control of government policy, exercise power without accountability.
[2] [2] Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, japan, The Netherlands, United kingdom, United States of America, Switzerland and Sweden
Source: geopolitika.ru
