By Hugh Fitzgerald on Nov 7, 2024 - - - -
What will Trump’s victory mean for Israel? Will Hamas be more likely to enter into a deal now for the release of hostages and a brief ceasefire, because it believes Trump is likely to be much tougher on the Palestinians than Biden? Will Israel decide not to enter such a deal because the Israelis figure they can get a better deal from a President Trump? What will Trump’s ascension mean for American policy toward Iran? Will he pull out of the Iran deal as he did in 2017? Will Israel now have his full support if it decides to attack Iran’s nuclear installations? And though Trump has made know his opposition to lengthy military commitments overseas, perhaps he would be willing to collaborate with Israel on a swift and deadly attack on all of Iran’s nuclear installations, including the uranium enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow, where the 30,000-pound bunker busters that would be needed to hit the underground plants are in the American arsenal but not, as yet, in Israel’s? Not only Israel, but the Sunni Arab states of the Gulf would welcome the destruction of Iran’s nuclear threat. If Trump were persuaded that such a swift attack would put an end to the need for a longer-lasting American military presence in the Middle East, he might be persuaded either to take part in such an attack with Israel, or to provide Israel with both the 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs the Israelis would need to hit uranium enrichment plants built deep underground, and the B-52 bombers that would be needed to carry those bombs to their targets — the very bombers that just happen to have been sent to unspecified bases in the Middle East.
More on what Trump’s victory could mean for the Middle East can be found here: "Trump’s victory throws diplomatic bombshell into Israel's multi-front war - analysis," by Tovah Lazaroff, Jerusalem Post, November 6, 2024:
President-elect Donald Trump’s comeback victory Tuesday weakens diplomatic efforts to end Israel’s multifront wars in the short term and calls into question US long-term support for Israel’s military campaigns against Iran and its proxies.
It’s the equivalent of a diplomatic bombshell, whose chilling effects will be felt almost immediately, and which already seems to freeze such ceasefire efforts.
Trump’s policies on all issues relating to Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran will be diametrically different than his predecessor US President Joe Biden and he will chart a new course....
The frozen hostage deal in particular, could take a hit during those months, particularly given Netanyahu’s insistence that he won’t meet Hamas’s demand that any such agreement must allow for a permanent ceasefire and a full IDF withdrawal.
Political support for favoring military goals over a hostage deal was strengthened on Tuesday night when Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, replacing him with Foreign Minister Israel Katz.
Gallant had been among those voices who believed that Israel should end the war if it meant getting a deal to free the hostages.
The Trump win, however, could push Hamas to prefer a deal under Biden, believing the terms would be better given Trump’s pro-Israeli stances and his strong ties to Qatar.
Absent that, Biden will have few pressure levers by which to push forward a deal, particularly with both sides entrenched in their positions.
It could, however, have a positive impact on Israel’s direct conflict with Iran, which has now seen two rounds of direct attacks and counterattacks, with Israel bracing for an even harsher Iranian strike.
Biden now has more leeway – should he choose to act on it – to take military action against Iran, particularly by striking its nuclear sites. It has already subtly threatened Iran with such a step, by moving B-52 bombers into the region....
These B-52 bombers are able to carry the 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs that would be needed to completely destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow.
Having failed to diplomatically halt a nuclear Iran, Biden could potentially do so militarily, shifting the geopolitics of the Middle East, even before Trump arrives in Washington to set it on a new course.
Food for thought, in Washington and Jerusalem. I’m betting that Biden will not attack Iran’s uranium enrichment plants, nor provide Israel with the bunker buster bombs and B-52 bombers it would need to do so by itself. Trump, however, is another matter. If he is convinced that an attack on those facilities will be swift, that America will not be bogged down in another long war like those, so colossally wasteful, in Iraq and Afghanistan, but instead be engaging in a bombing campaign lasting only a few days, he might be willing to join Israel in such a strike at the head of the snake, reducing Iran’s power to do harm, and humiliating the Islamic Republic’s rulers in a way that will shake the foundations of their rule.
@https://jihadwatch.org
