Sri Lanka's presidential election: Voter faced with choice of status quo, mild tinkering or radical change
Most analysts agree that there is no clear-cut winner and the race to the presidency is a multiple-horse race
Sugeeswara Senadhira -- - - -
The Sri Lankan voter uses his or her power of ballot almost once in every two years either to choose Executive President, Member of Parliament, Provincial Council Member or local government representative.
As no election was held since the last parliamentary elections in August 2020, the voters are eagerly waiting to cast their ballots tomorrow (September 21) to elect an Executive President.
Although the local government elections were originally scheduled to be held in 2022, it was postponed to 2023 due to the worsening economic crisis and instability in the country, and was postponed again as funds were not available to conduct the polls. The Provincial Council elections were deadlocked due to the need for an amendment to be passed in parliament.
In between the last two elections, the 2022 Aragalaya (protest movement) resulted in mid-term change of president and Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over the presidency for the remaining period, is one of the contenders in tomorrow’s election. Other two main candidates are Wickremesinghe's one time deputy leader of the United National Party (UNP), Sajith Premadasa, who formed a new alliance, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the leader of radical Marxists, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who is contesting as the candidate of left alliance National People’s Power (NPP).
Main issue is economy, people’s hardship
The main issues at the election are economy, corruption, poverty and unemployment. Although Wickremesinghe managed to shore up economic stability and resolved the most urgent shortages and took austerity measures to balance the books with the help of the deal with International Monetary Fund (IMF), most hardships are likely to continue for a few more years.
Wickremesinghe introduced several economic reforms and few more are under way as part of the IMF package and negotiations with creditors on essential debt restructuring are nearing completion. Some reliefs were introduced before the election, but Sri Lanka’s debt is at precarious levels and the economy is vulnerable to external shocks, even if the tough fiscal targets are met.
In the past, there were allegations of malpractices in some of the elections in Sri Lanka, especially the National Referendum in 1982 to extend the term of the Parliament elected in 1977, which was to end in 1982, for five more years. At two of the eight presidential elections, there were allegations of intimidation of voters by militant groups to boycott elections.
Election Commission is independent
However, after the elimination of terrorism in 2009, the subsequent elections were held in a free and fair manner, as recorded by the local and international monitors. The Election Commission of Sri Lanka is an independent institution and all the decisions pertaining to the elections are taken by the Commission. The government has made the allocation of budgetary requirements and the rest is for the Commission to carry out.
The European Union and Commonwealth election monitoring teams scrutinize not only the casting and counting of ballots on Election Day but also the period ahead of the polls, including the registration of candidates, electoral campaign and preparations for the vote, and relevant post-election mechanisms such as electoral dispute resolution and the reporting of campaign expenses.
There are few local election observing institutions include the People’s Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL), Institute for Democratic Reforms and Electoral Studies (IRES), Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV), Centre for Policy Alternative (CPA) and the Campaign for Free and Fair Election (CaFFE).
Tough choice for voters
According to exit polls in the last six months, there were position changes of the three leading candidates who announced their candidature well in advance. Once they said Anura Kumara Dissanayake was ahead, then stated Sajith Premadasa - son of a former president - overtook him and, in the last two weeks Ranil Wickremesinghe’s chances have improved. Although different opinion polls give markedly different predictions, so far none of the reliable ones had given a clear 50% to any of the candidates.
In the first eight presidential elections from 1982 to 2019, there were only two leading candidates at each election and one of them was expected to get more than 50% plus one vote needed for an outright win. Hence, there was no requirement to count the second preferential votes to decide a winner.
However, this time the scenario is different. Most of the exit polls and opinion polls predict less than 40% of the votes for the leading candidate and 15% to 30% each of the other leading contenders. Most analysts agree that there is no clear-cut winner and the race to the presidency is a multiple-horse race.
In a scenario where none of the candidates get more than 50% of the votes, the importance of the second preference becomes paramount. The average voter is not used to recording its second or third preferences in a presidential poll.
The candidate who polls more than 50% of votes is declared winner. The counting of second choices of voters will be required in case no candidate secures more than 50% of votes. Then the votes polled for losing candidates will be counted and the second and third preferences marked in them will be added to the first two candidates to decide the final winner.
While Wickremesinghe wants the economic reforms with the IMF package to continue, Premadasa wants some IMF conditions to be changed, while Dissanayake is for a total change of economic policies and the system of governance. The voter will decide on Saturday whether they want status quo, mild changes or radical transformation.
(The author, a former Sri Lankan diplomat, is a political and strategic affairs commentator. Views are personal. He can be contacted at sugeeswara@gmail.com)
@SAM
