According to Indian media reports, Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, is expected to visit China from August 31 to September 1, 2025, to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin. If this visit takes place, it would mark Modi’s first trip to China in seven years. Although the visit has not yet been officially confirmed by either the Chinese or Indian governments, the news has already attracted significant international attention.

China and India are two neighboring countries that together account for more than one-third of the world's population. Both nations are playing increasingly decisive roles in shaping the global balance of power. The relationship between these two countries holds strategic significance not only for themselves but also for the entire South Asian region, especially for neighboring countries like Nepal. On the one hand, India and China have experienced historical border disputes, strategic rivalry, and mutual distrust; on the other hand, there exists considerable potential for cooperation in trade, security, climate change, and multilateral platforms.

After the Galwan clash in 2020, trust between India and China deteriorated significantly. However, in recent times, some positive signals have emerged. The high-level meeting held in Kazan in October 2024 hinted at a potential reset in their bilateral ties. Both sides have conveyed the message that they are “development partners, not rivals.” If this message is translated into concrete action, it would benefit the entire region.

In recent months, India’s National Security Advisor, Defense Minister, and Minister of External Affairs have visited China a notable level of diplomatic engagement compared to the past few years. However, the reality is that India still maintains restrictions on Chinese investments, technology, and manpower. Direct flights between the two countries have not been fully resumed, and the trust deficit remains substantial.

As a country that stands for an independent, sovereign, and balanced foreign policy, Nepal views India's China policy through the same lens. It would be wise for India to shape its approach toward China not from a sense of insecurity but based on mutual interests and regional stability.

Nepal, though small in size, holds strategic importance and aspires to maintain balanced and constructive relations with both China and India. When India and China engage cooperatively, the ripple effects are positive for Nepal as well especially in areas such as trade, infrastructure development, tourism, and energy. But if their relationship deteriorates, Nepal inevitably faces negative consequences.

In such a context, the most important thing for Nepalis is the protection of our national interest, the upholding of our non-aligned foreign policy, and the ability to withstand direct or indirect pressures from powerful neighbors.

Prime Minister Modi’s potential visit to China could open a new chapter in India-China relations. However, for the relationship to be sustainable, both countries must embrace mutual respect, equality, and pragmatic cooperation. As a third neighboring country, Nepal hopes that the dialogue between these two giants emphasizes stability and partnership over power projection.

As a Nepali proverb goes, “When there’s fire in the neighbor’s house, sprinkling water in your own won’t help.” Therefore, it is vital that all countries in our region proceed with restraint, understanding, and a shared vision for the future.

(Note-Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month when he travels to China - his first visit in seven years - to attend the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a regional security bloc.

The engagements follow a thaw in India and China's five-year standoff after an agreement last October on patrolling their Himalayan border, which eased the strain on bilateral ties that had hurt trade, investment and air travel.

Relations were further boosted in recent weeks amid new tensions in India-U.S. ties after decades of progress, analysts said, as Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports to the United States - one of the highest levels among Washington's strategic partners. By Shivam Patel and Liz Lee)