Kim Jong-un Declares Strong Counteractions Against the U.S. and Severs Ties with South Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un adopted a hardline stance against the U.S. during the 9th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea. He emphasized strength and direct confrontation. Regarding South Korea, he declared the relationship as no longer based on kinship but marked by hostility between two nations in a state of war. He openly discussed achieving complete control of the Korean Peninsula through nuclear force.

Speculation suggests North Korea intends to continue its standoff with the U.S. by advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, potentially targeting the U.S. mainland, especially before the U.S. presidential election in November this year. By categorizing South Korea as a separate hostile state, North Korea aims to gain nuclear superiority over South Korea, eliminating ethnic justifications that might restrict nuclear weapon use, likely causing internal conflicts and fear within South Korea.

According to North Korean state media, including the Korean Central News Agency, Kim Jong-un announced this hardline policy against the U.S. during the 9th Plenary Meeting on the 31st of last month. He stressed consistently adhering to the principle of strong counteractions and direct confrontation when dealing with the U.S. and its allies.

Kim Jong-un pointed to factors contributing to escalating tensions, including the U.S.-led South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation, the establishment of the "Washington Declaration" and the "Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG)", South Korea-U.S joint military exercises, and the deployment of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea has firmly stated its commitment to responding to what it perceives as nuclear threats from the U.S. and its allies with nuclear retaliation and direct confrontations, placing a greater emphasis on military power rather than diplomatic solutions.

In its dealings with South Korea, Japan, and the U.S., North Korea made distinct language choices. While Kim Jong-un used derogatory language when referring to South Korea and Japan, he simply referred to the U.S. as 'America'. In the year-end plenary meeting report, terms like 'anti-imperialism' and 'confrontation with America' were employed, while refraining from using expressions like 'American imperialism' or 'anti-America'.

For South Korea, derogatory terms like 'South Korean bastards' were used 5 times, 'South Korean jerks’ 4 times, and ‘stupid south Korean’ once, among others including puppet, servant and so on. For the U.S., 'American bastards' was used once, 'American military gangsters' once, but 'America' appeared 16 times. While North Korea criticized both South Korea and the U.S., it referred to the South Korean government as the 'Yoon Suk-yeol puppet regime' and 'Yoon Suk-yeol puppet clique', using more diplomatic language for the U.S. President. This approach may relate to the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

This suggests North Korea aims to heighten tensions with the U.S. until the new U.S. administration takes office after this year's presidential election, viewing it as a strategic shift. Before the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics eased tensions, North Korea had heightened them in 2017 with its sixth nuclear test. Now, North Korea seems to view the period until the November U.S. election as the start of a long-term strategy. The aim is to negotiate with the incoming U.S. administration in the first half of the following year to solidify its nuclear power status.

During the plenary meeting, North Korea declared its foreign policy direction as proactive and strategic adaptation to the evolving international situation. It aims to shape their diplomatic history as a strong nation while upholding principles such as protecting the Party's dignity, enhancing national prestige, and safeguarding national interests. This signifies an assertive foreign policy driven by advances in nuclear capabilities and the stability of Kim Jong-un's regime.

Externally, North Korea emphasized an alliance with China and Russia to counter the United States and the Western bloc. Kim in the plenary meeting that the focus should be on developing relationships with socialist ruling parties and enhancing ties with anti-imperialist, independent countries to oppose U.S. and Western hegemony.

During the plenary meeting, Kim assessed that the relationship between North and South Korea has solidified as hostile, no longer based on ethnic kinship or homogeneity. This indicates North Korea's abandonment of the Democratic Confederal Republic of Koryo (DCRK), its official unification plan since 1980, which advocated "one country, two systems.”

North Korea has pursued unification under its leadership through the frontal unification strategy but it faced its failure due to South Korea's rejection and the North-South power disparity. The regime views inter-Korean exchange and cooperation, promoted under 'Our Nation First', as counterproductive, spreading South Korean culture in the North and jeopardizing the regime. Enactment of laws like the Reactionary Ideology and Culture Rejection Law since 2020, blocking South Korean culture, shows North Korea's concern about the infiltration of South Korean democratic ideas.

Kim's proclamation of using military force, including nuclear capabilities, for the occupation of South Korea, is seen as a return to Kim Il-sung's military unification theory.

North Korea's mention of reorganizing and restructuring departments responsible for South Korean affairs, including the United Front Department of the WPK, suggests a move towards a more aggressive, provocation-focused policy towards South Korea, indicating a complete severance and blockade of inter-Korean relations.

Therefore, North Korea is expected to pursue aggressive policies against the U.S. and South Korea in 2024, including military actions. The expected intensification of military threats towards South Korea is likely to increase if North Korea successfully carries out its seventh nuclear test and launches three additional reconnaissance satellites as planned, leading to the operational deployment of nuclear weapons.

Utilizing the New Cold War dynamic in the international community, North Korea is expected to expand economic and military cooperation and strengthen diplomatic solidarity with China and Russia, thereby heightening security tensions in the region while aiming to fracture the South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation system.

Especially, cyber operations are expected to be maximized to incite internal conflicts, utilizing the South Korean general elections scheduled for April this year and the U.S. presidential election in November. The possibility of higher-level local military provocations than before, using South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises and the abolition of the 9.19 South-North Korea’s Military Agreement as pretexts, necessitates thorough preparedness.

@SAND