TRAILOKYA RAJ ARYAL
With the new constitution nowhere in sight and announcement of protest programs by the UCPN (Maoist)-led coalition starting next week, Nepal is likely to see a new political equation in the coming days. Recent events indicate so. The ex-King reminded the political parties to abide by the agreements reached with him some eight years ago. Majority of Nepalis are totally indifferent to the political parties’ failure to promulgate the constitution on Jan 22, 2015. No new political force/power has yet made its entry in the political scene.
 
Nepali politics is likely to witness one of the following two possibilities if politics is allowed to take its natural course. An alliance between the ex-King and the Maoists or an alliance between the ex-King and parliamentary parties, including NC, UML and others can emerge.

While it’s quite fashionable among the self-declared liberals and high priests of democracy to view any mention of the role of the ex-King in Nepali politics as blasphemous, the reality seems to favor him than any other force in the country today. Our analysts seem to forget the basics that there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics and that the events have made the ex-King indispensible for both the right and left for their survival. Along with the monarchy, another crucial dimension—the role of Nepal Army—is also conspicuously missing in the analyses published in broadsheets these days.

Bluntly speaking, with its humiliating defeat in the second CA election, the UCPN (Maoist)’s agenda along with its leaders’ political aspirations have been thwarted by the people.

Now, the only way for the UCPN (Maoist) leaders to realize their political ambitions is to make a volte-face and reach an alliance with the ex-King to protect “nationalism”. The Maoist leaders seem to fear that the state may use various means, including an investigation on the corruption charges against them, thereby further eroding whatever little credibility they enjoy now.

Therefore, in the zero-sum game that the political parties are engaging in at the moment, an alliance with the ex-King will add significantly to the UCPN’s power because it will attract nationalists (those who feel that foreign intervention in the country is growing) and the royalists (a significant minority or majority, depending on one’s political inclination).

Furthermore, in the absence of its own military like in the past, the prospect of having the Nepal Army (another nationalist force) support the alliance is a temptation that the Maoist leaders, who understand the power of bullets in Nepali politics, cannot resist.

Then there is another equally likely scenario: In a bid to further weaken the Maoists, the parliamentary parties—NC, UML and RPP led by both Surya Bahadur Thapa and Kamal Thapa—will seek an alliance with the ex-King to protect “democracy” and “ethnic harmony” in the country. These parties by now understand it too well the need to have the military (the bullet) by their side if they are to foil the Maoist attempt to impose its agenda on them. And for their continuing survival as political actors, they need to have a backup and the Nepal Army is the only force they can count on.

A traditional force like Nepal Army is more likely to support the monarchy than the Maoists or the parliamentary parties. The ex-King’s allegations time and again that the political parties have failed to deliver on agreements reached with him, if examined properly, reveal that the political parties, no matter how much they deny it now, did agree to retain the institution of monarchy. It is very likely that the military was convinced that the political parties will live by that agreement. Then call it a divine intervention or something else, things took a surprising turn and Nepal was declared a republic, taking even some of the signatories of the 12-point agreement and the military, off guard. There was nothing much it could do, except remain neutral in the changed scenario. But things have changed now and the undesired and reviled “royalist” force of the past is needed by both the left and the right to protect “nationalism” and “democracy” respectively.

It is also very likely that the international community, especially our neighbors, could see either of the likely equation as Nepal’s search for a strong state and will support it. It is no secret that there are three lobbies within any given political party today: the Indian, the American and the latest entrant, Chinese.

India, worried about China’s growing influence in Nepal’s domestic politics, would definitely support a regime that can keep the Chinese at bay and the Chinese would also support a regime that would lessen the Indian and American influence in the country. Both realize that a strong Nepali state will certainly lessen their influence in Nepal but at the same time, it will also lessen the influence of their competitor(s).

In our context a strong state is only possible if the military is willing to overtly support a regime whether in the pretext of protecting nationalism or ensuring the democratic rights of the people. In a total reversal of fate, the ex-King has become the legitimizing factor for either of the scenario and both the left and the right need him for their survival.
What an irony! The ex-King is slowly emerging as the kingmaker.
@my republika