A below-normal monsoon does not mean a safer monsoon.
Kathmandu, 7 July 2026 — As deadly floods and cloudburst-triggered disasters continue to hit parts of Pakistan, Nepal and India, scientists warn that communities across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) face an increasingly dangerous pattern this season: longer dry spells punctuated by sudden bursts of intense rainfall capable of triggering flash floods, landslides and glacier-related hazards.
The warning follows recent cloudburst-induced flooding in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan and flooding triggered by intense rainfalls in Arunachal Pradesh, India, even as the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026 projecting below-normal seasonal rainfall across much of the region.
"The biggest misunderstanding is that less seasonal rainfall means lower flood risk," said Saswata Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction Specialist at ICIMOD. "Seasonal forecasts describes average conditions over several months, not what happens in a single valley. Under El Niño, long dry spells can be interrupted by intense local storms that triggers devastating flash floods and landslides."
The contradiction lies at the heart of this year’s monsoon. While El Niño is expected to suppress seasonal rainfall across much of South Asia, short-lived weather systems can temporarily override that pattern, producing intense localised rainfalls capable of causing severe flooding.
The result is a monsoon that is becoming more uneven and difficult to predict, with prolonged dry conditions increasing pressure on agriculture and water supplies while isolated extreme rainfall events continue to threaten lives and infrastructure.
Above-normal temperatures are expected to further increase risks in glacier-fed river basins across the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Warmer conditions accelerate glacier and snowmelt, adding more water to rivers already swollen by intense rainfall while also destabilising mountain slopes and moraine-dammed lakes.
"The recent flooding in Pakistan's Thore Valley demonstrates that hazards in the HKH are no longer occurring in isolation," said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD. "Heavy rainfall, glacier melt, unstable slopes and fast-rising rivers can interact to create cascading disasters. Preparedness must reflect these compound risks rather than treating each hazard separately."
Scientists say governments should prepare simultaneously for drought, heat stress, flash floods, landslides and glacier-related hazards rather than viewing them as separate scenarios.
Particular attention is needed for settlements along riverbanks, steep mountain slopes and rapidly expanding urban areas across Nepal, northern and north-eastern India, Pakistan and other vulnerable mountain regions, where fragile geology, rising temperatures and expanding infrastructure continue to increase exposure.
With weeks of the monsoon still ahead, experts say the greatest danger is assuming that fewer rainy days mean fewer disasters. This year's monsoon demands preparedness for drought and floods at the same time.
Additional quotes for media use
"A drier monsoon can still be a dangerous monsoon. A seasonal rainfall average cannot capture the cloudbursts that cause catastrophic flooding in mountain valleys."
"This year requires dual preparedness. Communities must prepare for prolonged dry spells while remaining ready for sudden flash floods, landslides and debris flows."
Saswata Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction Specialist, ICIMOD
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"Higher temperatures increase glacier and snowmelt, meaning even short periods of heavy rainfall can generate much larger floods in glacier-fed river basins."
"Early warning systems need to consider rainfall, glacier melt, river flow and slope stability together because these hazards increasingly occur as cascading events."
Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist, ICIMOD
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"Mountain communities have long combined scientific forecasts with local knowledge. That combination will become even more important as rainfall becomes more erratic."
"Settlements on steep slopes and along riverbanks remain among the most exposed locations this monsoon."
Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Water and Disaster Risk Reduction Lead, ICIMOD
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"Disasters across the HKH are becoming more frequent and increasingly complex, but preparedness systems are still largely designed around individual hazards."
"Strengthening transboundary early warning and information sharing is becoming increasingly important for managing risks that cross river basins and national borders."
Qianggong Zhang, Head of Climate and Environmental Risks, ICIMOD
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"Heavy rainfall in Himalayan headwaters can quickly translate into flooding downstream. Monitoring upstream conditions is essential for reducing flood risk across entire river basins."
Navneet Yadav, Team Lead for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Resilience, Palladium India
About International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region stretches 3,500km across Asia, spanning eight countries – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan. Encompassing high-altitude mountain ranges, mid-hills, and plains, the zone is vital for the food, water, and energy security of up to two billion people and is a habitat for countless irreplaceable species. It is also acutely fragile, and vulnerable to the impacts of the triple planetary crisis of climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), based in Kathmandu, Nepal, is an international organisation established in 1983, that is working to make this critical region greener, more inclusive and climate resilient. For more information, read our Strategy 2030 and explore our website.
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ICIMOD (Kathmandu)
Raz Tuladhar, Media Officer
Anshu Pandey, Senior Media Associate
Email: media@icimod.org
