By D.C. Pathak

In India’s view, the international scene today is marked by a certain tentativeness injected by US President Donald Trump’s approach to India and Pakistan. This is compounded by China’s increased influence on India’s neighbors, India’s continued need for Russian supplies in defence and energy, and the challenge of maintaining an active profile in both BRICS and QUAD. 

The revelation of Chinese military support to Pakistan during the military confrontation that followed the Pakistan-directed terrorist attack at Pahalgam, the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, and India’s prospect of rising to become one of the top economies of the world further shape this complex geopolitical landscape.

The current geopolitics is barely preventing the world from being pushed towards a new Cold War, primarily due to a certain bonhomie that still exists between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. International developments are keeping the world scene in a state of flux, necessitating that India’s national strategy possesses the necessary flexibility to cope.

The strategic paradigms for India are not difficult to define. Adjusting to President Trump’s somewhat erratic style of governance through Executive Directives, pursued in furtherance of his maxim of ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) and the call of ‘America First’ across domestic, foreign policy, and trade & tariff spheres, has become important. Prime Minister Modi, during his visit to the White House in February this year, made it clear that India had an understanding approach towards MAGA or America First, adding that India would also like to call for ‘Make India Great Again’.

India did not react to a group of illegal Indian immigrants being sent back to the country in handcuffs on a military plane, following Trump’s declaration of an ‘Immigration Emergency’. Instead, India adopted the sensible stance that it would cooperate with the US in dismantling “the ecosystem that had been created to encourage illegal migration to that country.” On the balance of trade and tariffs, India rightly favored negotiations, befitting the status of a country that has offered its huge market to the world. However, hints of India resisting any stark arbitrariness from the US in trade matters need to be clearly conveyed.

Another point of strategic challenge for India is the Sino-Pak alliance, which is fundamentally operative against India. Its military dimension became evident when India retaliated against the Pahalgam terror attack by taking out nine terrorist bases in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Pakistan. This precipitated a full-fledged military confrontation between India and Pakistan, in which Pakistan utilized military hardware and ‘live inputs’ supplied by China, besides drones received from Türkiye. This continued until a ceasefire plea from the Pakistan DGMO was accepted by India. The Deputy Chief of the Indian Army recently confirmed that India was having to combat ‘three enemies’ and urged India to learn from this. It may be mentioned here that the growing proximity of Bangladesh to China and Pakistan also has strategic implications for India.

A related matter is the threat of Islamic terrorism emanating from the Pak-Afghan belt, where Pakistan enjoyed a certain ‘strategic depth’ against India. Significantly, Pakistan arranged a ‘give & take’ adjustment between the Taliban Emirate of Kabul and China, whereby China would extend its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to Afghanistan as an economic investment. In return, the Taliban would not raise the issue of the treatment of Muslim minorities in China, particularly in Uzbekistan, which borders Afghanistan.

India needs to educate the US on how Pakistan continues to foster Islamic terrorists on its soil while simultaneously trying to gain American sympathy regarding attacks by the radicals of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP has its own reasons for targeting Pakistan Army establishments, in addition to Shiites.

Radical Islamic forces are anti-US due to the historical memory of the anti-West Wahhabi revolt of the 19th century and are hostile to the Pakistan Army because of the friendship its Generals enjoyed with the Pentagon. Shiites are, of course, the traditional ‘enemies’ of Sunni extremists. The TTP has become more active after Pakistan was found to have ‘tamed’ the Kabul Emirate.

About the tension between the US and China, there is no doubt that China is striving to become the second superpower by building not only its military and technological power but also its economic strength, which it is consolidating at a fast pace. The China-Russia axis remains inviolable, with China leading the combine against the US.

India’s strategy should be to maintain friendship with Russia without prejudice to its relationship with the US, and not allow any American reservations against the import of oil and military equipment from Russia to impede its traditional bonds with the latter. India is a major world power, with a say on global issues of ‘war’ and peace, and it can handle international developments while prioritizing its national interests.

Finally, among all the regions of the world where India has strategic stakes, the Middle East is perhaps the most important. India has maintained friendship with all the major players in the region—Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia—despite their different international alignments. However, the military confrontation between Iran and Israel has threatened to create a global conflict after the US, in support of Israel, attacked Iran’s nuclear sites with bunker-buster bombs, prompting China and Russia to rally behind Iran.

A tenuous ceasefire currently holds as the Organisation of Islamic Conference backed Iran’s case and called upon the UN Security Council to intervene immediately to negotiate for peace. The Iran-Israel military conflict has assumed the form of a ‘civilizational clash’ between Islam and Zionism, which can turn into a war of attrition, creating a disturbing impact on the democratic world in general and India in particular.

India has rightly called for a cessation of armed confrontation between Iran and Israel, a stoppage of human atrocities in Gaza, and a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine-Russia ‘war’. India favors a multi-polar world order that helps it adopt a non-aligned approach to global conflicts and support world peace and humanitarian advancement. As a major world power, India must become self-sufficient in defence and economic growth and base its international relations on mutually beneficial bilateral friendships.

India has done well to oppose terrorism of all kinds from international platforms and, in particular, to condemn faith-based terror as the biggest threat to democratic regimes. India and the US, as the two largest democracies in the world, are united in denouncing Islamic terrorism. Whatever differences of opinion may exist between them on matters of trade and tariff, they have complete convergence against this important geopolitical danger.

Notwithstanding the ‘political’ alignment between the China-Russia axis and Iran against the US, faith-based terrorism is not upheld by the Communist bloc. President Putin would not have forgotten the terror attack by ISIS-K on a concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow on March 22 last year, in which 130 people were killed and hundreds injured. Convergence on opposition to Islamic terrorism would help India to maintain its friendship with both the US and Russia while continuing to deal with China as a major adversary.

(The writer is a former Director of India’s Intelligence Bureau)