By Wang Jianhong & Yang Xinmiao - - - -
As the two largest countries in Asia, China and India are playing an increasingly important role in the arena of cooperation with the countries of the South. China, as the world's second largest economy, has demonstrated great economic and political influence globally, particularly in the South, through the Belt and Road Initiative. India, as one of the world's most populous democracies, has made a "paradigm shift" in its approach to international cooperation through policies such as the "Eastward Movement", and is gaining influence in South-East Asia and other countries of the South.
The countries of the South are in a relatively weak position in globalization, often facing poverty, health problems, inadequate education and poor infrastructure, and are to some extent dependent on assistance, investment and technology from China and India. China-India investment and cooperation projects in the countries of the South are crucial to promoting local economic development, infrastructure development and social well-being. By exploring the potential benefits and challenges of China-India cooperation for the countries of the South, it is possible to gain a comprehensive understanding of the role and impact of the two rising powers in the global context.
China and India have a long history of cooperation in the countries of the South, and both countries have demonstrated a certain degree of cooperative spirit through joint initiatives and projects. Since the Banlung Conference, China and India, as representatives of developing countries, have jointly advocated the Non-Aligned Movement, which served as the initial basis for cooperation between the two countries. In the 21st century, China has continued to step up its large-scale investments in infrastructure, such as ports, railroads, and roads, in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, and the China Belt and Road Investment Report for the first half of 2023 shows China's increased participation in the metals and mining sector, which grew by 131 percent compared to the first half of 2022, with high levels of participation in African and Latin American countries. participation is high. On the other hand, India is also actively promoting technical cooperation and training programs in Southeast Asian and African countries through the Indian Technology and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program and the "Eastward Movement" policy to expand its influence. In addition, China and India are increasingly cooperating with countries of the South in the energy sector, which not only deepens the economic ties between China and India and the countries of the South, but also influences to a certain extent the development paths of the countries of the South and the positioning of their international relations.
China and India, as the world's two largest developing countries, have opened up new opportunities in the area of cooperation among countries of the South, such as cross-border e-commerce, mobile payments, cloud outsourcing cooperation and other innovative modes of cooperation. China's economic rise has provided large-scale infrastructure investment and market access opportunities for countries in the South. According to the China-Africa Economic and Trade Relations Report (2023) released by China's Ministry of Commerce, China-Africa trade in goods further increased to US$282 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, of which China's exports to Africa amounted to US$164.49 billion and imports from Africa amounted to US$117.51 billion, with the three indicators hitting a new record high.
At the same time, India is also shifting the paradigm of its strategic cooperation with African countries. In order to reduce African countries' dependence on fossil fuels, India, through the International Solar Alliance (ISA), has extended relevant projects to 36 African countries, with the aim of helping 733 million people without electricity (the vast majority of whom are from Africa) to switch to renewable energy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also called Africa a "top priority" for India. By cooperating with China and India, the countries of the South are not only gaining access to the necessary infrastructure and technical support, but are also gaining a greater voice at the international level. Chinese and Indian investment and cooperation projects, such as the construction of ports, railroads and telecommunication networks, have both strengthened the physical and digital infrastructure of the countries of the South and facilitated their advancement in regional economic integration and global value chains.
While Sino-Indian cooperation in the countries of the South presents many opportunities, it also faces a series of challenges. First, political and security issues are one of the main challenges. In Africa and Latin America, China-India investment projects sometimes encounter local political instability and security threats. Secondly, the issue of debt sustainability cannot be ignored. Data show that India is the second largest lender in Africa, with investments in Africa totaling $70 billion, and by 2030 this figure will increase to $150 billion. Large-scale loans will lead to countries facing the risk of unsustainable debt, triggering the international community's concern about "debt trap diplomacy". In other words, both China and India face the challenge of capital efficiency and project sustainability.
To address these challenges, China and India need to adopt a multifaceted strategy.To begin with, political dialogue and security cooperation with countries of the South should be strengthened to reduce political and security risks through better risk assessment and project management. Furthermore, it should promote debt transparency and sustainability. China and India can strengthen cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other institutions to provide support for debt restructuring and financial management. Lastely, we should pay more attention to local development needs and environmental protection to ensure the social and environmental sustainability of investment projects. By developing an efficient, complete and comprehensive strategy, China and India can effectively address the challenges of cooperation and promote the prosperous development and stability of the countries of the South.
In the complex international chess game, China-India cooperation in the countries of the South is like a ray of light illuminating the path of development and progress. Although the path of cooperation is strewn with thorns, it is these challenges that have inspired deeper and more comprehensive cooperation strategies. In the future, we are confident that China and India will work together to pave a broader and more solid path of development in the South. The countries of the South will no longer be spectators on the periphery, but active participants, writing a new chapter of global development together with other countries. It is believed that, with the wisdom and efforts of China and India, the countries of the South will usher in a future full of hope, opportunity and co-prosperity.
(Wang Jianhong &Yang Xinmiao, Scholars of Southwest University of Political Science and Law, China)
with thanks Prem Sagar Poudel.