US, China and India’s Triangular fight begins in Nepal

-“My own observation is that the US and China shall avoid direct confrontation over Taiwan which enjoys the continued blessings of the US administration.

Both the US and China understated the consequences of  the war. But China shall continue to claim Taiwan as its integral part. 
But yet the US shall ever continue to supply arms and ammunition to Taiwan and will poke China in a regular basis. 
In lieu, China will acquire a very tough posture ( on trade agreements) and will in all likelihood press the US hard to get profitable agreements.
An armed conflict, I presume, shall never happen as it benefits neither of the two confronting Big powers.
I guess that the approaching October joint US-India military exercise will to a greater extent be taken by China as a direct challenge to it from India with whom it had a fatal war in 1962.
Since the military exercise is being carried out almost close to the “borders” so India awaits a Himalayan jolt from China that will provide a hint to India that its partnership in the QUAD mean less for China.
A China-India confrontation is round the corner”. Will the US assist India if and when the two go  to war?  If yes then the Russia -China coalition shall come into force which would mean the beginning of the Third World War. 

N. P. Upadhyaya (Aryal)

Kathmandu: The New York Times dated August 3, 2022, columnist Steven Erlanger in one of his article on Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit writes in an oblique manner that ‘Europe does not support the independence of Taiwan and recognizes Beijing as the seat of Chinese power’.

The columnist further says that what matters more to the European nations is, he claims, keeping open trade with China and its huge market.
The fact is also that several European nations “enjoy friendly” ties with China-the immediate rival of the lone Super Power USA and India in South Asia.

In addition, some even are the signatory to the China’s Belt and Road Initiative-the BRI.
BRI is an anathema to the US for understandable reasons.

Thus the increasing intimacy of the European countries for a variety of political and economic reasons with China is somewhat a sort of permanent headache for the USA which has at the moment bitter relations with China-the supposed emerging power in the world.

The US-China ties is undergoing through a worse phase.

Having said that, Steven hastens to add that while joining Washington in trying to prevent any military aggression against Taiwan, however, the European nations will in all likelihood not help support defend Taiwan militarily as against the wishes of President Joe Biden who prefers to defend Taiwan at all costs.

This is a fact that too got some inking on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Some European Countries were reluctant in confronting the Russians directly much to the dismay of the US.

The fact is that the European countries also take note of the fact that China and Russia have forged a sort of partnership instantly after the much publicized Russian invasion of Ukraine in early February this year.
Needless to say, the China-Russia coalition is a threat not only for the US but also to the entire European nations who are supposedly close to the US on many issues.

This coalition in all likelihood may enjoy the tacit support of Pakistan from South Asia for some exclusive reasons.

This does mean that though the European nations are excessively close to the US as allies, however, on several counts these countries differ on how to behave and treat China that greatly differs from the stances that the US has for China.

In a way, the US is also losing its clout in the European Union for understandable political and economic reasons.
The US, by the way, has no influence in South Asia as it has appointed India as its Policeman annoying Pakistan –its cold war time ally.

India certainly is not a good choice for the US.

In the recent years, several European Countries have entered into trade and businesses with China and thus it becomes very difficult for these countries to annoy their trading partner China only to satisfy the line acquired by the US.

This way the USs tight grip in Europe is lessening significantly which at times come to the fore.
For instance, there are a few countries which have signed agreements like the Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI) of China thus they find it difficult to go in opposition to China at a single stretch much to the unease of the US.

Taking a clue from the recent Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan Strait what could well be easily said that not so many countries of Europe exhibited their unequivocal support to the hardened USs stance (at times) over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on August 2, 2022.

Yes! What is also for sure is that the entire European Countries wish that China acquires a flexible and a democratic posture over not only Taiwan but also for Tibet and Hong Kong.

Isn’t it the time both for the US and China to make reconciliation efforts and ease the tension that has gripped the world politics.
Nancy’s Taiwan trip has jolted the entire global politics in many more ways than one.

Now to Phillip Bilsky:

Phillip Bilsky writing early August for the Deutsche Welle, German News Agency, asks whether Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan “Was it worth it”?

He says that Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan though lasted for just 19 hours, but yet now the threat of a possible war lurks over the horizon in and around Taiwan Straits.

Nepali observers take the emerging scenario as dangerous in that any mis-calculation could bring in both China and the rival US face to face and if it perchance happens may cause colossal damage to the countries directly involved in the war but also cause irreparable harm to those countries who deliberately or otherwise take part in this war either favoring the US and its allies or against China and its partners.

Damage is for sure either ways.

Phillip Bilsky, however, caring less for the Chinese concerns, says in the same article that for many Taiwani nationals “the much debated visit the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, was a complete success given that the visit has come at a time when, says Bilsky, China had increased its pressure on Taiwan by sending more and more fighter jets close to the island – almost a thousand in 2021 alone.

He may be correct in his assessment and we have nothing to challenge his personal remarks, but yet the ground reality as it stands these days (more so after Nancy’s sudden trip), is that China at regular intervals has been sounding to the US and its allies scattered across the globe that “Taiwan-island is an integral and inalienable part of China and that the Western powers must not come in between mainland China and its integral part-Taiwan.
However, Taiwan thinks differently than what mainland China considers of Taiwan.

Taiwan takes itself as a fully independent and a sovereign nation which has nothing to do with mainland China and that Taiwan being an independent nation has the authority to forge ties with countries across the globe including the US and the developed Western countries.
Taiwan’s stance, however, is strongly contested by People’s Republic of China (PRC) which claims Taiwan was an integral part of China.
The claims and the counter claims continue keeping the global population guessing as to which course the politics will take in the days ahead?
Upon greeting the visiting US dignitary August 2, 2022, the lady President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen beamingly termed House speaker Nancy Pelosi as “Taiwan’s most devoted friend”.

While Tsai Ing-wen was all praise for the US political lady Nancy then on the other hand, China had instantly geared up Military drills as a mark of disagreement or say dis-approval of the visit and was apparently ready to confront any likelihood of real conflict with the US and its allies who favor the USs standpoint on Taiwan.

Sources say that, Chinese military and air strength is already in the entire region which, it is reported, is as close as it is Taiwan.

The show of military strength of China even continues as of today, international media agencies report.

In a way, the entire area in and around Taiwan, remains under China’s surveillance which in many more ways than one has terrified not only Taiwan but the adjoining countries in the region. And here is what Nancy Pelosi says of her mysterious travel to Taiwan.

Nancy said that she and the US delegation had come to make it “unequivocally clear” that the US would not “abandon” the island to the mercy of the Dragon.

She further stated that “Forty three years ago, America made a promise to always stand with Taiwan… today our delegation came to Taiwan to make it unequivocally clear we will not abandon our commitment to Taiwan”.
Having said that, however, the visiting US dignitary forgot that her country through a joint communiqué signed as back as in 1972 accepts the One China Policy and with this acceptance the US is obliged to honor the joint communiqué and the commitments made therein.

However, the fact is also that the US wants Taiwan to practice “democracy” in its fullest form so that the Taiwani nationals could enjoy the universal benefits of democracy.

As per the historic 1972 Sanghai Communique official diplomatic agreement the US unequivocally declares that, “there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China and that [the U.S] reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves”.

The communique dates back to Richard Nixonian years when the US President had landed in Beijing.

Nixon took the risk to establish formal ties with China and it was definitely a breakthrough in bilateral ties which was a good news for the world.

It was this US Presidential visit that contributed the so far estranged US-China ties a new forward looking dimension though a “complete and cordial” friendship could never be observed, as it stands today, in between the two economic giants.

They still sharply differ on several pressing international issues including the recent one on Russian invasion on Ukraine, over China’s underbelly Tibet and now the Taiwan which the western allies take differently than the mainland Chinese regime.

Having read this joint approval of 1972, what becomes clear is that the USs officials’ position on Taiwan is best to be decided by the Chinese themselves that mutually suits to both.

Thus Nancy’s statement made in Taiwan clearly goes against the 1972 joint US-China communiqué wherein the US itself has committed to abide by “One China Policy”.

Looking at the world news on Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, what becomes clear is that while the US media writes less than what the Chinese media has been commenting on Nancy’s visit.

Clearly Chinese media is aggressive in attacking the US more so Nancy Pelosi.

Needless to say, Chinese media outlets have been covering the news that suits to the China’s official line then the US media is either ignoring the issue or at best left to the mercy of the time to get it settled.

Better late than never, the veteran US diplomat of the contemporary times, Henry Kissinger too has not completely taken the sides of the US.

Look what he says, “We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to.”

This clearly speaks that the ace diplomat too is not that happy with his own country’s political dealings over these days and months.

Enters the South Asian chameleon India:

South Asia’s regional scoundrel is glued to the US over these years only to deter and tease China-its nearest and dearest rival.

India got a humiliating and insulting defeat with China in the 1962 War and India has now inched closer to the US so that it could challenge China or with a hope that when the two confront, the US will come to its rescue.

Why the USs is taking India as a friend is very difficult to understand.

Yes. The US too prefers to bring in India in itst orbit to weaken China.

However, the fact is that India is the most unreliable partner of the US in that the latter must recall that the same chameleon India was all along the Cold War glued with the now defunct USSR (now the Russian federation).
Once a chameleon is always a chameleon and can’t be trusted.

Even as of today, the Indian regime is not that far from the Russian federation and may ditch US if and when it concludes that benefit is sticking with the Russians.

For example, on Ukraine, India took the side of the Russians ditching the US-the boss of the Quad.

Indian former Prime Minister Dr. M. M. Singh takes PM Modi as a disaster for India.

When the Indians take Modi as a disaster, the US is garlanding the most crook in South Asia more so in India.

It could be said that the US is committing blunders after blunders. India can’t be a perfect choice.

The Russian President Putin at best is using India to weaken the US for sure.

President Joe Biden must understand the Indian trick and the trickster PM Modi.

Earlier the better if the US prefers to incur less damage and lose international prestige.

That chameleon India is riding two diametrically opposing boats in an ocean which is sure to sink sooner than later. India could be takes as a South Asian fraud and PM Modi as a fraudster.

A day with soon come when both the US and Russia will take India as untouchable for having cheated both at different intervals of time.

Having said that, at the moment, India is with the US until only to extracts huge benefits.

A fresh article written by Aniruddha Dhar for the Nikkei Asia dated August 10, 2022, claims that “amid the ongoing tensions between China and the US following Nancy’s visit to Taiwan, the US and India have decided to conduct a “combat exercise” in Uttra Khand, bordering China, this October.

“India has hosted the annual exercise in Uttara Khand before, including in 2014, 2016, and 2018. But those exercises were all conducted in the foothills, more than 300 kms from the boundary.

To recall, China and India even as of today are embroiled in the border disputes.

“India and China have been locked in a border standoff since May 2020 and several rounds of military and diplomatic talks have only resulted in partial disengagement of troops from friction points, adds Aniruddha Dhar.
This US-India joint drill does tell that the chameleon regime in South Asia, India, is clearly with the US and endorses the Taiwan visit of Nancy Pelosi.

One fine morning, the US will be ditched by India when the former will need most the latter.

South Asian nations remain askance as to why the US has embraced India leaving its Cold War ally-Pakistan?

The biggest blunder the US is committing in South Asia is that it has deputed India as Policeman ignoring its time tested ally-Pakistan.

This is simply puzzling which questions the political and diplomatic acumen of the US administration, to say the least.

Observers in Nepal opine that even if USA and Pakistan ties are strained at the moment with the somewhat unceremonious ouster of PM Imran Khan, yet Pakistan for several geo-political reasons could be the best and trusted ally of the US if the latter approaches Islamabad through track-2 diplomacy. It is a challenge for Antony Blinken to correct the bilateral ties that stands derailed now and this should apply to Bilawal Bhutoo-the sitting Pakistani Foreign Minister.

And China’s envoy in Nepal:

Talking to a Nepali media outlet in early days of August, the Chinese envoy in Nepal said, “The trip of Nancy Pelosi is a serious violation of the one-China principle and the political foundation of China-US relations”.

In a new development, the Maoists Speaker of Nepali Parliament, Agni Sapkota too said August 12, 2022, that Nepal is always committed to the one-China policy, and that Nepal is always on alert and aware to not allowing Nepali land to be used against any neighboring countries.

In the meanwhile, Nepali foreign minister Narayan Khadka has returned from Qingdao, China after meeting FM Wang Yi vowing to what China wants from Nepal.

Nepal in a way too is riding two boats at a time. Neither it can ignore China not it will stick to its standard line on China given the fresh political developments.

Nepal is with the US and also can’t leave China as it is committed to one China policy to which the US has aplenty of disagreements.

But the ground reality is that most of the India trained and tilted Nepali leaders have been cheating China.

The Devil is watching Nepal:

Not only this, the next door enemy neighbor, India too is watching Nepal’s inching closer to both the US and China.
India is clearly a devil for independent and sovereign Nepal though Nepal’s independence and sovereignty are in question these days with the passage of the India drafted Citizenship bill.

India will challenge the US:

At yet another level, India will not tolerate US presence in Nepal if it exceeds the limits as formulated by India.
If the stated limit gets exceeded, India may confront the US in Nepal through the active support of the domestic RAW posted agents and also with the helps from paid and the recruited “media” friends that run in thousands.
The Indian embassy takes Nepali media men in its payroll as “street Dogs”.

India may even treble the RAW investment in Nepal to counter the US or for that matter the Chinese as India takes Nepal as its “undeclared” extended territory.

Chances are fair that the Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit may hit Nepal hard with the likely initiation of big power rivalries for an increased influence in India controlled and dictated Nepal.

The three countries are obviously, China, India and the US-a new entrant comparatively. Nepal should tighten its belt to face the triangular conflict that is in the making. The troika’s collision is for sure. That’s all.

@ telegraphnepal

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